Antoine Escoffier vs Stefano Travaglia Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 10/7/24

With the rain playing such a role over at the ATP’s Rolex Shanghai Masters, we’ll head back to the Challenger Tour for our second preview on Monday. Action in France shifts from the indoor hard courts of Mouilleron-le-Captif to Roanne. Let’s look at the Open de Roanne and Antoine Escoffier vs Stefano Travaglia.

Travaglia’s win probability is only 36.5%, while Escoffier is favored to win at 1.47 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.

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Jon Reid’s Escoffier vs Travaglia prediction is for Travaglia to make this a close one

Antoine Escoffier vs Stefano Travaglia Prediction

• Prediction: Travaglia to win
• Best Odds: 2.74
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds updated at 12:00 am UK Time on October 7th, 2024. 

I understand why the bettors have been backing Escoffier early on. They’re taking the view that with the Italian not having played on indoor hard courts since the spring, he may struggle to acclimate.

My issue with that is the fact that in potentially quick conditions, these two are both big servers, which often turns these kinds of matches into close ones by nature. Just from that standpoint alone, I’d like to have the 2.74 odds player onside.

Then there’s the fact that Travaglia’s problems indoors when things play quickly tend to come against guys that can rush him from the baseline and while Escoffier has a strong first serve, he has a lot of net clearance on his forehands and lacks that imposing power. That makes me believe Travaglia should be okay in those baseline rallies while possessing enough firepower to control points in his service games.

Escoffier is also someone who has been a tad overvalued of late. I thought it was odd to see him as a clear favorite against his younger countryman last week in Sasha Gueymard Wayenburg, who ended up coming back to beat him in three sets. The youngster imposed himself and had a much more attack-minded game.

Antoine Escoffier Recent Form

Other than that loss to Gueymard Wayenburg, Escoffier has also been bested by Harold Mayot, Lucas Pouille, and Kyle Edmund in his last three tournaments. Those were all straight sets losses and none of those guys is exactly an imposing world-beater on the secondary tour.

I think his game is adequate at this level, but once the point moves past his first serve, he doesn’t have nearly enough at his disposal to finish it off.

As an underdog, I don’t mind backing him indoors. As a strong favorite expected to win over 66% of the time? It becomes much tougher to justify that kind of price being value.

Stefano Travaglia Recent Form

Back on the brink of the world’s top 200, Travaglia’s form has actually been pretty strong of late. He’s made a quarterfinal and a trio of semis in his last four events. The catch is those were all on clay. Sure, confidence-wise, that’ll surely help, but in terms of looking to those results as predictive here, they’re not so useful.

It’s been a while since he played on hard courts at all, but earlier this year he managed runs in both Koblenz (semifinal) and Tenerife (final). Those conditions may not have been as quick, but his game does work on the surface and he certainly has no business being this large of an underdog.

Antoine Escoffier vs Stefano Travaglia H2H – Stat of the Match

Escoffier has the lone win in the matches these guys contested on the professional circuit. That came in an outdoor Challenger last season – a season that saw Escoffier breakout on the Challenger circuit at 31 years old.

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