Emiliana Arango vs Lucrezia Stefanini Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, Stats - 3/31/25

It’s time to kick off the opening round of the Copa Colsanitas in Bogota, and among the first-round affairs is a clash between 4-seed Emiliana Aranga and Lucrezia Stefanini.

Colombian native Emiliana Arango is favored at odds of -160 to advance past her Italian counterpart, although Stefanini won their most recent clash at last year’s US Open.

EJ Garr’s prediction for Emiliana Arango vs. Lucrezia Stefanini features odds at -109, which you can find below.

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Emiliana Arango vs Lucrezia Stefanini WTA Copa Colsanitas Prediction: Colombian Feeling At Home

• Prediction: Emiliana Arango -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: -109
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 7:00 am UK Time on March 31, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Emiliana Arango and Lucrezia Stefanini have become quite familiar with each other lately, as the pair is meeting for the sixth time since the 2021 campaign. Arango holds a slight edge of 3 – 2 in the series, and I will get more into that in the H2H below.

Arango starts the week ranked 79, and the Colombian native has been playing great tennis over the last month. Mexico treated Arango nicely, and the Colombian went 11 – 1 with a title and a finals appearance at Cancun and Merida. 

Ironically, Arango’s first match of the clay season was a complete disaster, as Chloe Paquet took her down in three sets at Antalya in Turkey on March 19. Arango won her first tournament title at home in Colombia during the 2021 season, and hasn’t hoisted hardware on this surface since.

Being at home should help Arango feel more comfortable, and she will certainly garner the crowd on home soil. Will that make her a better player? 

Stefanini hasn’t exactly started 2025 with a bang, as the Italian native hasn’t won more than twice in any event this season.

Stefanini is ranked 146th on the WTA Tour, and until the Italian shows me more consistency, I have to fade her in this spot. Arango should comfortably find a victory in this game, and I think -2.5 games isn’t much to ask the Colombian to get past Stefanini.

When I saw Arango listed at -160 to advance past Stefanini, my first thought was the handicap, knowing we would only have to lay a couple of games to cash a nice -109 offer instead of paying all of that juice.

EMILIANA ARANGO RECENT FORM

Emiliana Arango went 5 – 0 in Cancun to hoist the hardware and was 6 – 0 at Merida before losing the finals to Emma Navarro. The 11 – 1 run in Mexico should have given Arango a positive mindset to start the clay season, but the Colombian flopped against Chloe Paquet.

The 24-year-old is 14 – 5 in 2025, which is a much different result from the  2024 campaign. Arango went 23 – 34 in 2024 and didn’t have a winning record on any surface. 

LUCREZIA STEFANINI RECENT FORM

Lucrezia Stefanini is 13 – 11 to start the 2025 season, and went 6 – 8 on clay in 2024.

Stefanini hasn’t produced a winning record on clay since 2021, but does have two titles won on the dirt.

ARANGO VS STEFANINI HTH –  STAT OF THE MATCH

Arnago and Stefanini have met five times on the WTA Tour since 2021, and the Colombian native is 3 – 2 in the series.

The first meeting was a three-set affair at Santo Domingo that went to Arango.

In 2022, Stefanini leveled the series at 1 – 1 with a win in Portugal, and the two met three times last year.

Their first meeting last year was at Cluj, and Stefanini retired from the match that went into a third set. Arango was gifted the win and defeated the Italian on her home soil at Palermo. 

Stefanini won the match at last year’s US Open in three sets.

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