Elina Svitolina vs Iga Swiatek Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, Stats - 3/24/25

Elina Svitolina will take on Iga Swiatek in the fourth round of the Miami Open with a quarterfinal appearance in the balance.

The Polska native arrives strongly favored to advance past her Ukrainian counterpart with -500 odds, and the 2-seed set a record with 25 straight fourth-round showings at a WTA1000 event (Format started in 2009).

The former 2022 Miami Open champion passed Serena Willams to break the record with the win against Karolina Muchova in the third round this weekend.

EJ Garr’s prediction for Elina Svitolina vs, Iga Swiatek features odds of +138, which you can find below.

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Elina Svitolina vs Iga Swiatek WTA Miami Open Prediction: An Early First-Set Expectation

• Prediction: First-set Over 9.5 Games
• Best Odds: +138
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 7:00 am UK Time on March 24, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Iga Swiatek improved to 12 – 3 from 15 matches at the Miami Open, and by reaching the fourth round of this WTA1000 event, the Polska native set a record.

With 25 straight showings in the fourth round of WTA1000 events, the World’s #2 passed Serena Williams to claim the record.

Swiatek was tested early in the third round against Elise Mertens, as the first set went into a tie-break before the Polska native wasted no time in the second frame with a 6 – 1 frame to sweep the Belgian out of the event.

Getting to Swiatek early will be the key for Svitolina to have any chance to stay in this match. I am counting on that because the price on the first-set total has such lovely odds of +138 for a 6 – 4 finish. 

Mertens took that approach and put so much effort into it that she had nothing left to give in the second set against Swiatek this weekend.

Svitolina has been tested by two quality opponents in Miami this week. Belinda Bencic was a -170 favorite to take down Svitolina and Karolina Muchova opened as a slight favorite in the third round. That line eventually went to even-money and Svitolina pounded out a three-set win against the Czech Republic native. 

Svitolina will have to be at her best today, and Iga Swiatek tends to bring out the best in her opponents… sometimes! I just hope the Ukrainian keeps it close as Mertens did early, and we get 10 games in the first set to cash the +138 ticket to start the week with a bang!

ELINA SVITOLINA RECENT FORM

Elina Svitolina starts the week ranked 22nd on the WTA Tour, and is 5 – 1 over the last 6 outings. The loss was against Indian Wells champ Mirra Andreeva, so we’ll excuse her for that defeat.

Svitolina is 11 – 5 in 2025 and is following up a 30 – 18 2024 campaign with winning records on all three surfaces.

IGA SWIATEK RECENT FORM

Iga Swiatek has won 12 of 15 matches at the Miami Open and is 20 – 5 in 2025.

Swiatek is without a title through the first ten events of the WTA Tour for the first time in quite a while, and she is aware of it.

The World’s #2 won 19 tournaments from 2022 to 2024. 

SVITOLINA VS SWIATEK HTH –  STAT OF THE MATCH

Iga Swiatek is 2 – 1 in three meetings with Elina Svitolina.

They first met during the 2021 campaign on the clay in Rome, and Swiatek swept Svitolina out of the event.

At Wimbledon in 2023, Svitolina exacted revenge and upset Swiatek in three sets.

Last season in Dubai, Swiatek took out Svitolina in two sets.

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