Elena Rybakina vs Sofia Kenin Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, Stats - 2/20/25

Elena Rybakina and Sofia Kenin square off in the third of four quarterfinal affairs at the Dubai Tennis Championships on Thursday, and the Kazakhstan native arrives as the strong favorite to reach the semis.

With odds floating to -400, Rybakina is following up a 3-hour battle against Paula Badosa in the third round of this WTA1000 event in Dubai.

Wildcard Sofia Kenin pulled off one of the biggest upsets in Dubai after defeating 5th-ranked Jasmine Paolini in the third round.

EJ Garr’s prediction for Elena Rybakina vs. Sofia Kenin features odds at +104, which you can find below. 

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Elena Rybakina vs Sofia Kenin WTA Dubai Championships Prediction: Underdogs Barking In Dubai

• Prediction: Sofia Kenin +4.5 Games
• Best Odds: +104
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 7:00 am UK Time on February 20, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Sofia Kenin is being given no chance compete with Elena Rybakina because the line setters said so!

And if you believe that, I have a bridge in New York that I can sell you for a bargain price!

The oddsmakers have been dishing out big money on the underdogs the last two weeks, and it all started in Qatar. After so many upsets in that event, we have seen a staggering amount of underdogs defying the odds in Dubai this week.

Sofia Kenin and Elena Rybakina have met twice, and I will save the bulk of those matchups for later, but Sonya isn’t scared of the Kazakh native.

This is about the fifth match I have discussed with Kenin, and I am impressed with her service game and the return-of-serve adjustments she’s making. There are moments I get reminded of Johnny Isner watching Kenin because we see so many high-scoring sets that go to tie-breaks. 

We all know Kenin as a Jekyll and Hyde kind of player because as soon as you think she can take on anyone, the American has flopped, and last year was a disaster that none of us will forget.

Taking Kenin to cover +4.5 games might seem like a tall order, but if underdogs are going to keep barking as loud as they have been, I hope the trend continues. 

I love underdogs and totals, and I have never hidden that aspect of my approach since I started here three years ago. Give me the games in my pocket, and let’s see if the American can battle with Rybakina long enough to cover.

ELENA RYBAKINA RECENT FORM

Elena Rybakina was forced to save six match points and could have easily been eliminated from this event in the third round. 

The Kazakh native spent nearly three hours on the court yesterday and reached a third quarterfinal in Dubai.

Rybakina was a semifinalist in Abu Dhabi and Doha and is a win away from a third consecutive appearance at this stage. It only took two wins to reach the semis at those events, and Rybakina hasn’t won three straight outings but once since Wimbledon last season (Australian Open).

SOFIA KENIN RECENT FORM

Sofia Kenin has put together her first three-match win streak since Tokyo in October last season.

Kenin has provided three upsets in Dubai this week. The former World’s #4 removed the defending champion in the third round as a +175 underdog and was listed at +150 against Kostyuk in the second round. The 56th-ranked American is 10 – 5 this season, which is a far cry from the 16 – 26 record in 2024.

RYBAKINA VS KENIN HTH –  STAT OF THE MATCH

Rybakina has defeated Kenin twice in two meetings on the WTA Tour.

They first met here in Dubai in 2020, and after Kenin won the first-set tie-break, Rybakina won the final two frames and advanced. The pair met again during the 2023 campaign at Indian Wells, and both sets went to a tie-break. Rybakina won and swept the match, but it wasn’t easy. 

The winner of this match will face Mirra Andreeva or Iga Swiatek in the semifinals of the Dubai Tennis Championships.

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