Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Liudmila Samsonova Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, Stats - 4/15/25

Compatriots Ekaterina Alexandrova and Liudmila Samsonova square off in the first round of the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix on Tuesday in Stuttgart.

22nd-ranked Alexandrova arrives at this WTA500 event favored at -165 to advance past 19th-ranked Samsonova, and our WTA expert has a lengthy clash in mind.

EJ Garr’s prediction for Ekaterina Alexandrova vs. Liudmila Samsonova features odds of +140, which can be found below.

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Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Liudmila Samsonova WTA Stuttgart Prediction: We’re Going The Distance

• Prediction: Match Total Over 2.5 Sets
• Best Odds: +140
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 7:00 am UK Time on April 15, 2025. Odds may now differ.

As soon as Alexandrova and Samsonova were listed as opponents for this opening-round match in Stuttgart, my first thought went toward a three-set affair.

Seeing Alexandrova favored at -165 is a little surprising, because I expected a much tighter line. 

Samsonova can’t beat Alexandrova?

The +3 handicap is listed at -115, and considering I expect a lengthy battle, I will post some action on Samsonova to cover to potentially upset Alexandrova outright.

Being favored doesn’t make me think Alexandrova is better than Samsonova, just because the line setters want to try to convince us otherwise.

I am sure we’ll agree when I say that clay isn’t exactly a strong surface for either player. 

Samsonova hasn’t won a title on the dirt since 2018 at an ITF event, and Alexandrova has the exact amount of clay titles as I do… None!

I will expect a wild opening frame, and the -105 offer on Over 9.5 Games is your first bet to make. The +285 odds on the Over 10.5 games stare me in the face, saying, ‘take me, take me’, so I will shut it up and make that a small action bet.

How about 9 breaks of serve today? The second set might be just as crazy with games adding up, but I hope whoever drops the first set can rebound and force the issue to a third frame.

As I like to say, we’re going the distance, so the +140 odds on the Over 2.5 sets are the main bet to have on your card from Germany.

EKATERINA ALEXANDROVA RECENT FORM

Ekaterina Alexandrova has had a strange 2025 with successes and failures.

Alexandrova started the season 1 – 3 in Australia, and the lights finally turned on. The 22nd-ranked 30-year-old ran off four wins and a title at Linz before blasting off four more wins in Doha en route to the semifinals.

Then, the wheels fell off, and Alexandrova went 0 – 4 before arriving in the US for the Charleston Open. Alexandrove looked good here in the States, reeling off another three wins to begin the clay swing, but Jess Pegula ended that hope of a title run.

LIUDMILA SAMSOMOVA RECENT FORM

Liudmila Samsonova couldn’t have ended 2024 in worse shape than 0 – 5 to close out last season.

Samsonova has three wins at the Australian Open and three wins last month at Indian Wells, and that is about as good as it has been for the 19th-ranked 26-year-old. 

Samsonova lost four straight outings, starting with the semifinal loss in Doha, getting ousted in the first round at Dubai, Indian Wells, and Miami before the Charleston event.

ALEXANDROVA VS SAMSONOVA HTH –  STAT OF THE MATCH

Ekaterina Alexandrova and Ludmila Samsonova have met three times in the last two years, but none have been played on clay.

Alexandrova won the first two meetings in 2023 on the grass of Berlin and the hardcourts of Tokyo. Samsonova won their most recent meeting on the grass of Hertogenbach last June in three sets.

The winner of this match will face Mirra or Erika Andreeva in the second round of the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix.

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