Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Jessica Pegula Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, Stats - 2/13/25

Ekaterina Alexandrova continues to impress at the Qatar Open, and the Prague resident faces another tough test against American Jessica Pegula in the quarterfinals.

After the stunning upset against the World’s #1 Aryna Sabalenka, the line setters listed Alexandrova as a big dog against Elise Mertens. We know how that went, and once again, Alexandrova will play the underdog role in Doha against a top 5-ranked opponent.

EJ Garr’s predictions for Ekaterina Alexandrova vs. Jessica Pegula feature two lines with plus value. 

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Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Jessica Pegula WTA Qatar Open Prediction: Dog Will Hunt

• Prediction: Ekaterina Alexandrova to Win & Match Total Over 2.5 Sets
• Best Odds: +150 & +140
• Bookmaker: William Hill & Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 7:00 am UK Time on February 13, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Do you ever get tired of being told you aren’t good enough? The line setters have been telling Ekaterina Alexandrova that all week, but has it stopped her from getting to the quarterfinals of the Qatar Open?

After being told she had no chance to defeat Sabalenka, Elise Mertens was a -170 favorite to defeat Alexandrova, yet she is the one competing at the Qatar Open! There was no letdown after the big win over the World’s #1 for Alexandrova, and I don’t expect one at this point of the tournament.

This is unfamiliar territory for Alexandrova regarding previous entries to this event. The 30-year-old Prague resident is competing for the fourth time at the Qatar Open, and this is her first appearance at this stage of this WTA1000 tourney after a third-round showing last season.

I am not buying the letdown chatter and mean no disrespect to Pegula because the American has enjoyed success here. This is Pegula’s fourth entry to the Qatar Open, and she lost to Iga Swiatek in the 2023 finals in her last appearance.

With Alexandrova’s confidence as high as it gets entering this match, I am calling for another upset in this event. At +150, Alexandrova wins, and it will take three sets to finish off Pegula.

At +140, the Over 2.5 Sets will be your second bet to make for this quarterfinal battle at Doha, so enjoy the two offers with plus value.

EKATERINA ALEXANDROVA RECENT FORM

Ekaterina Alexandrova brings a 6-game win streak into the quarterfinals of the Qatar Open and is following up a title run at Linz. 

Alexandrova started the week ranked 26th on the WTA Tour, and that number will improve even more with another upset in Doha over a top-5 opponent.

With an 8 – 3 record in 2025, Alexandrova barely stayed above water last season at 26 – 25, including a 1 – 7 record on the clay.

JESSICA PEGULA RECENT FORM

Jessica Pegula is making up for losing most of last season. With a run to the Adelaide and a third-round showing at the Aussie Open, Pegula is 7 – 2 to begin the 2025 campaign.

Pegula ended the 2024 season with a 39 – 16 record, completing a fourth straight campaign with a winning record on all three surfaces.

ALEXANDROVA VS PEGULA HTH –  STAT OF THE MATCH

Alexandrova and Pegula have met twice on the WTA Tour since 2021 and have split the series with a win apiece.

Pegula won their first meeting in Rome during the 2021 season, and last year, Alexandrova leveled the series with a 3-set win at the Miami Open.  

The winner of this match will face Marta Kostyuk or Amanda Anisimova in the semifinals of the Qatar Open.

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