Jack Draper vs Taylor Fritz Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/12/25

For our first preview of the day, we’ll look at what I consider to be the match of the day from the ATP portion of the BNP Paribas Open, with Jack Draper vs Taylor Fritz giving us a heavyweight battle from Tennis Paradise.

Fritz’s win probability is only 46%, while Draper is favoured to win at 1.78 odds. The handicap is one game and the total games line is 23.

Jon Reid’s Draper vs Fritz prediction is for it to be a close match and to pass on it betting wise.

Jack Draper vs Taylor Fritz Prediction: Match of the Day From Indian Wells to Provide Fireworks

It feels odd to say, but I think the market actually has this one right, with Draper priced up as the favourite at the time of writing.

It would sound nonsensical if both players were at their best, with Fritz obviously being the guy that has proven far more on the main tour, but that isn’t the case entering this match. While Draper has started his 2025 season very well, Fritz has had a few bumps in the road.

He’s also recently stated that he was dealing with a bit of an injury for a while and that he knew he’d have to play his way into rhythm this tournament since that knock affected his preparation for this event.

For that reason, I do think that Draper is a deserved favourite. He’s been well known as an extremely talented youngster for a long time now and his form this year has shown he’s in the midst of taking the next step – he’s now ranked inside the world’s top-15.

I don’t think I can bet him as a favourite though, as I think the market has adjusted to the Fritz play and potential physical hindrances already.

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Jack Draper Recent Form

With a 9-2 record and both losses coming to top-tier players (Carlos Alcaraz, via retirement and Andrey Rublev in the final of a tournament), I don’t think Draper, nor his team will be disappointed with how the season has started.

Even his scheduling has been up to par, as he took the second week of the Doha and Dubai Middle Eastern swing off after playing his fair share of tennis in Qatar.

He’s also been more efficient with his on-court performances since needing back-to-back-to-back five setters to reach the final 16 in Melbourne, where he had nothing left after the opening set against Carlos Alcaraz and wound up retiring once the second set went against him fairly rapidly.

As much as Fritz has improved on the backhand side, the key to victory for Draper still has to be his lefty serve and forehand targeting that wing as much as possible on Wednesday.

Taylor Fritz Recent Form

After his successful bid for the United States at the United Cup, the world No. 4 has been shaky by his standards.

Only managing the third round at the Australian Open will surely have been a disappointment, and relatively early exits in both Dallas and Delray Beach (where he had won several times before) only led to more questions.

That’s when it came out that Fritz wasn’t playing at 100% physically. This week has also been a tad underwhelming, with him needing a comeback in the last round against an out-of-form Alejandro Tabilo and having to save quite a few break points to oust Matteo Gigante the round prior.

We’ll see how he looks on Wednesday, but at the moment, him being the underdog against a fellow top player doesn’t seem that far-fetched of an idea.

Jack Draper vs Taylor Fritz H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have beaten one another two times apiece. Only one match was decided in straight sets though and that was the first one they contested all the way back in 2022.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see another hard fought three setter for a spot in the quarterfinals in the desert.

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