Jack Draper vs Matteo Berrettini Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 2/20/25

The first preview of the day comes from the ATP 500 Qatar ExxonMobil Open as we look at Jack Draper vs Matteo Berrettini.

Berrettini’s win probability is only 44%, while Draper is favoured to win at 1.70 odds. The handicap is 1.5 games and the total games line is 24.

Jon Reid’s Draper vs Berrettini prediction is for Draper to win.

Jack Draper vs Matteo Berrettini Prediction: Berrettini Overvalued for Second Straight Day

• Prediction: Draper to win & Draper -2 Games
• Best Odds: 1.71 & 2.09
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10 & 2/10

Odds as at 3:15 am UK Time on February 20th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

I’m a little perplexed as to why Berrettini is once again being given as much credit as he is. His season hasn’t been that strong, I don’t think he matches up particularly well with Draper and the younger and more athletic of the two is in much better form this year.

Berrettini was also last off the court on Wednesday night in Doha after a long three set battle with Tallon Griekspoor. A match that took over 30 games to see the first break of the match. Draper, on the other hand, once again swept his opponent away and was clinical in doing so.

With Berrettini’s backhand being rather suspect and Draper able to play both powerful and higher-margin for error forehands into that side in crosscourt exchanges, there are a lot of factors that point to this being Draper’s match to lose.

Jack Draper Recent Form

It’s been a hot start to the season for the talented lefty, with his only loss coming via retirement as he ran out of gas against one of the world’s best players in Carlos Alcaraz down at the Australian Open.

He did need a trio of five set wins to reach that round of 16 matchup, likely contributing to him retiring and all of those could have been avoided, but in the slower conditions when he has both the time to get into return points and the offensive game to stay on the front foot in his own service games, he’s been rolling.

He’s won all four sets he’s played against a pair of Aussies, with three of those being 6-2 or better.

He has the power to hit with Berretini, moves more efficiently, has a more reliable and sturdy backhand while also being the better returner.

When you are simply the better player with a matchup advantage and the more well-rounded game, I think they should be a larger favourite than this.

Matteo Berrettini Recent Form

A lot of the tennis world thought Berrettini was back and on the verge of rejoining the top-10 last season after he won three ATP titles on clay and made another final on grass. The catch? Those were all at the 250 level.

The rest of his season? He looked like the player coming back from an injury absence. That has continued into 2025, as Berrettini is just 3-3 with wins against an underpowered Cameron Norrie, a seemingly still hurt Novak Djokovic and Griekspoor (who he also lost to in a similarly tight contest in Rotterdam).

I don’t think we’ve seen him lighting the world on fire, yet the pricing here would make it seem like he’s rated slightly below someone like Draper.

At the moment, with his play on court, the players he’s come up against and the way his opponent has been playing, I have him rated well below Draper.

Jack Draper vs Matteo Berrettini H2H – Stat of the Match

The lone matchup between these two came last summer in a serve-oriented contest in the Stuttgart final. Draper ended up vanquishing the big Italian from a set down that day to win his maiden ATP title (he added the Vienna trophy in the fall to bring that count to two).

Those were much quicker conditions that also played in a bit of altitude, which I think helped Berrettini close the gap on Draper to an extent with his serve being that much more effective (while also making his backhand slice far more effective than it’ll likely be on Thursday).

I don’t think expecting this match to be as centred around the service games is as likely in the slower conditions. That holds especially true if Berrettini starts to feel it in his legs after a long match that ended fairly late the day prior.

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