Jack Draper vs Mattia Bellucci Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 9/25/24

We’ll head back to the ATP main tour for our second preview. It’s Jack Draper vs Mattia Bellucci from the Japan Open in Tokyo.

Bellucci’s win probability is only 28.7%, while Draper is favored to win at 1.34 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.

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Our Draper vs Bellucci prediction is for Draper to cover the handicap.

Jack Draper vs Mattia Bellucci Prediction: In Form Draper to Trouble Underpowered Italian

• Prediction: Draper -3.5 Games & Draper -4 Games
• Best Odds: 1.85 & 2.11
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10 & 2/10

Odds updated at 1:30 am UK Time on September 25th, 2024. 

Absolutely love getting Draper here at a handicap that is a slightly expensive 3.5 games or a nice and cheap four. Draper is in terrific form, has only lost to strong competition (other than that loss to Cam Norrie) for a few months, and is well clear talent-wise of Bellucci.

I’m not overly concerned about burnout or fatigue, with Draper only having played two Davis Cup matches since his deep run at the U.S. Open and the court conditions should also suit him. He has the bigger serve, more power, can still return – especially against someone lacking real weapons like Bellucci – and the points should be shorter for the most part, which helps mask the one concern Draper has had in the last few years: his physicality. 

If I’m being honest, he’s been breaking down much less than normal, but it’s still nice to know he should be able to win points in shorter order and reduce that risk.

Jack Draper Recent Form

A title in Stuttgart in very quick conditions. A grand slam semifinal at the U.S. Open. Losses to strong players like Taylor Fritz, Tommy Paul, Jannik Sinner, and a somehow-still-top-20 Holger Rune.

When you’re winning titles, racking up match victories and the majority of your losses are coming to some of the best in the sport, I don’t think there’s much fault to be found with your form.

That’s the case here with Draper, who is now No. 20 in the world; a career-high ranking.

He’s been playing a different tier of player than Bellucci and that’s simply because he’s in a different tier talent-wise. I’ll back him to keep the form on tour going against his fellow lefty.

Mattia Bellucci Recent Form

Now on the precipice of cracking the top 100 for the first time, Bellucci has been on absolute fire in recent months. Now, there has been some smart scheduling and lucky draws involved in that.

Dating back to Atlanta in July, the Italian is 20-5 on the hard courts across the ATP and Challenger Tours including qualifying matches.

The problem? He has beaten almost no one of note. I’m not sure who his best win would be in that stretch, but it’s no one remotely near the level of the surging Draper. The better players he’s come up against in the last two months or so have almost all beaten him.

Draper falls into that category and with the ability he showed on the return of serve at the U.S. Open, I certainly think Bellucci could be in danger of dropping a lopsided set in a loss.

Jack Draper vs Mattia Bellucci H2H – Stat of the Match

No prior meetings between these two.

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