Donna Vekic vs Jasmine Paolini Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, Stats - 7/11/24

Donna Vekic and Jasmine Paolini square off in the first of two semifinal matches on Thursday in London, and one win will push one of these ladies through to the Wimbledon Championship final this weekend.

Centre Court will host the dramatics for this unlikely clash, and Italian Jasmine Paolini is the favorite to reach her second Major semifinal appearance in successive tournaments. After a surprise run to the French Open finale, Paolini is ranked 7th on the WTA Tour facing 37th-ranked Donna Vekic who has never been to a Major semifinal. 

Vekic has played five matches at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, and four of those affairs have gone the distance.

At -175, Paolini has the pressure on her to win this match, and EJ Garr’s Donna Vekic vs Jasmine Paolini prediction features odds at +140 which you can find below.

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Donna Vekic vs Jasmine Paolini Prediction: Two Surprises, One Shot At The Major Final

• Prediction: Match Total Over 2.5 Sets
• Best Odds: +140
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated at 7:00 am UK Time on July 11, 2024. 

Who is the real Jasmine Paolini and where did this incredible resurgence come from? After the improbable run to the French Open title match, now the Italian is one win away from back-to-back Final appearances in a Major Tournament.

That is something that no other Italian player in the history of the WTA can claim which is pretty damn incredible but the work isn’t done yet. Being strongly favored means the pressure is on you to be the best player on the court today, and it only motivates Donna Vekic even more as the underdog.

I am usually one to put games in my pocket on a nice underdog but I don’t see Vekic winning this match or covering the +2.5 handicap. I do believe that this match will go three sets, and my bet of the day takes another shot at the Over 2.5 Sets listed at +140. 

Vekic undoubtedly has the size advantage, and her length will help to save a few points that will keep her in the game. There will be three sets in a Donna Vekic match… stop me if you have heard that throughout this event! 

Donna Vekic will win a set, and Paolini will win the other two to cover the handicap. The line setters are screaming it will happen listing Vekic to win a set at -185 and Paolini to win a set at -450. That is enough evidence to point to a 3-set semifinal on Centre Court at the Wimbledon Championships with plenty of value behind the offer.

DONNA VEKIC RECENT FORM

Donna Vekic has seen plenty of court time in this tournament having played three sets in four of her five affairs at Wimbledon.

Vekic is in unfamiliar territory having reached a semifinal at a Major for the first time in London, and also has 10 wins on the grass which the 28-year-old Croatian had never accomplished.

Overall, Donna is 55 – 36 on the grass with a Nottingham trophy in her showcase from 2017.

JASMINE PAOLINI RECENT FORM

How do we sum up Jasmine’s recent form? Let’s say it’s pretty good after a run to the French Open final while being on the brink of a Wimbledon final. 

Jasmine was 0 – 6 on the grass from 2018 – 2022 and only won two matches on this surface last season before this magical run to the semis at Wimbledon.

With a 7 – 1 record on the grass in 2024, Paolini is 27 – 12 overall this season with a Dubai title to her credit.

VEKIC VS PAOLINI H2H –  STAT OF THE MATCH

Vekic and Paolini have met three times on the WTA Tour and the Italian holds a 2 – 1 edge in the series.

Last year at Montreal, Paolini earned a straight-sets win over Vekic, and their other two clashes happened in the 2021 campaign. 

In August 2021, Paolini picked up her first win over Vekic in Cincinnati which was also a straight-set win for the Italian. In October, Vekic took down Paolini in her native Italy at the Courmayeur event only dropping two games in the match.

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