Novak Djokovic vs Alexander Zverev Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 1/23/25

The semifinal round is upon us at the Australian Open and we’ve got three of the best four players in the world remaining in the semifinals.

Only Carlos Alcaraz was sent packing early, thanks to being placed in the same quarter as Novak Djokovic. Now the greatest to ever pick up a tennis racquet is faced with another tough test. Let’s break down Novak Djokovic vs Alexander Zverev.

Zverev’s win probability is just over 40%, while Djokovic is favoured to win at 1.65 odds. The handicap is two games and the total games line is 41.

Jon Reid’s Djokovic vs Zverev prediction is for Zverev to win.

Novak Djokovic vs Alexander Zverev Prediction: Zverev Undervalued Against Potentially Ailing Djokovic

• Prediction: Zverev to win
• Best Odds: 2.40
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 12:00 am UK Time on January 23rd, 2025. Odds may now differ.

As admirable as his win in the quarterfinAlexander Zverev

Now, Zverev does not have the forehand that Alcaraz does or the mind-blowing movement and shotmaking skills. That said, those aren’t what cost Alcaraz last round.

What Zverev does that is far more likely to trouble Djokovic is put simple second returns in play, make things very physical and stick right with him in backhand exchanges. His first serve should also net him more cheap points – something that is very important against such an elite returner.

Finally, we saw this from Djokovic last season at Wimbledon when he gutted it out to the final before being blown off the court by Alcaraz. He didn’t look to be near 100% in the last match here and with another potentially physical match against an elite player on the horizon, I do think the market is missing a key point in pricing up this match.

This may be the rare case where the longer this match goes, the more it favours the underdog.

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Novak Djokovic Recent Form

Other than a loss to the big-serving Reilly Opelka on faster courts in Brisbane, Djokovic hasn’t lost this season.

He has dropped three sets this week, but it has to be said he rounded into form. After dropping two unexpected sets in the opening rounds, he handled a pair of strong ball-striking Czechs in the third and fourth rounds in straight sets to set up that huge tilt with Alcaraz.

The concern is that he never looked like he was 100% against Alcaraz, was hunched over between points at a concerning frequency and did mention that had he lost the second set he was likely going to retire.

Sure, there are murmurs on social media that he may have played up the injuries, but he was far from dominant on court in the final two sets, often relying on his return game and some really, really poor decision making and inexcusable errors on return from the Spanish phenom.

I’m not quite sold on his form at this point and think that Zverev should be commanding a bit more respect.

Alexander Zverev Recent Form

Much like Djokovic, the big German’s 2025 has started out really well down under. He won his two singles matches at the United Cup, and has come through five matches in Melbourne dropping just two sets along the way.

Last year saw him play an abundance of matches, winning a strong majority of them, which allowed him to reach the world’s No. 2 ranking, even if it isn’t likely he’s the second best player in men’s tennis.

His reward has been a manageable draw at the year’s opening slam and now he has a pretty decent chance at once again reaching a final and scoring that elusive major trophy.

Landing first serves hasn’t really been a problem for him for a while, so for Zverev the key to the match here has to be to wear Djokovic down and not give away silly points with poor second serve returns and not letting too many lengthy rallies end with a poor unforced error from his racquet.

Novak Djokovic vs Alexander Zverev H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the 13th meeting all time between these two, with Djokovic leading 8-4 in professional and Olympic matches. Now, the problem with this stat sometimes is that we really need to isolate relevant matches to get a hold for how this series has gone of late.

They’ve only met once since Zverev beat Djokovic at the 2021 ATP Finals, with Djokovic winning a very close match in Cincinnati.

At this stage, knowing what we know about Djokovic from last round and Alcaraz essentially letting him off the hook, I think the market is either mispricing how close these two are nowadays in talent or undervaluing Djokovic’s potential injury.

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