Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/25/25

Our second preview on the day from the Miami Open comes from the Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti match in a tilt that features two of the ATP’s top-20 players.

Musetti’s win probability is only 28.5%, while Djokovic is favoured to win at 1.34 odds. The handicap is four games and the total games line is 22.

Jon Reid’s Djokovic vs Musetti prediction is for Musetti to pull off the upset.

Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction: Djokovic Ripe for an Upset on Tuesday

• Predictions: Musetti +1.5 Sets
• Best Odds: 1.87 & 3.54
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle & SX Betting Exchange
• Stakes: 3/10 & 1/10

Odds as at 1:15 am UK Time on March 25th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

As close as Musetti has come to beating Djokovic before (he has once, to be fair, but has missed narrowly on several other occasions), this may be his best chance to get it done on a hard court.

Despite some dominant first sets in the last two matches he’s played, it’s worth bearing in mind that Djokovic was playing some lower level and severely underpowered opposition. In fact, I’d argue that with his return game, allowing two of four sets to get to a tiebreak – regardless of the other two sets being lopsided – is a bit of a disappointment.

With Musetti being as solid as the last two guys that gave him some trouble in the second sets and being more well-rounded and having a legitimate tour-level pedigree, if Djokovic struggles to put points away or establish himself on the front foot tennis as he did down the stretch of his last matches, he could find himself in big trouble.

I acknowledge that the market isn’t making him as large a favourite as he once was, so there’s been at least a partial adjustment, but with the way he’s seemed lost lately for long stretches on how to penetrate through his opponent’s defences, along with the step up in competition, I still think the market has overvalued him a bit. Giving Musetti a sub-30% chance to win just isn’t correct in my books, so I’ll take a shot on this longer price.

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Novak Djokovic Recent Form

Since retiring after the first set in Melbourne, Djokovic hasn’t looked quite right. I’d make the case that he’s been on a steady decline for a while now, with his serve reverting to what it was prior to working with Goran Ivanisevic.

That’s likely more to do with age than his coaching situation, but it also makes him more fallible on the court. Think about how dominant he was prior to last season even in his mid-30s. He had always had the endurance and tactical proficiency on court. His return game and his backhand have both always been lauded among the greatest ever seen across surfaces. His serve really began to click though, and that made him as close to unstoppable as it got.

Problem is, that’s no longer the case. Physically knocks pop up more often now (again, Father Time is undefeated) and since Australia, he put in a pair of uninspiring performances against Matteo Berrettini and Botic van de Zandschulp, while in Miami he’s been dealt an incredible draw and nearly made a meal out of matches against low level opposition in Rinky Hijikata and borderline Challenger Tour clay court grinder Camilo Ugo Carabelli.

I’m far from sold on his level at the moment and think this is a decent opportunity to oppose someone that is still getting a lot of love in the markets based on their name.

Lorenzo Musetti Recent Form

Though Musetti has had to claw his way to this point, I think the hurdles he’s had to clear in previous rounds posed a much different problem. Quentin Halys and Felix Auger Aliassime both had a significant power advantage against him on these medium to medium-fast courts on both the serve and forehand. That power disadvantage had him under more pressure on serve than he was able to generate until he could find his footing on return, at which point he looked much better.

He’s played Djokovic competitively a lot in the past, mainly because Djokovic’s strengths of consistency, point construction and working the court are precisely the characteristics to Musetti’s game that have landed him where he is in the rankings.

In what should be a hard-fought match with a lot of long points, I think Musetti has what it takes to stick with physically as each of Djokovic’s last two opponents did and the skill to push him over the top in snagging a set.

Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti H2H – Stat of the Match

The all time great may lead this series 7-1, but among those seven wins? A win via retirement from two sets down in Paris, another win at Roland Garros from two sets to one down and of course the one Musetti win.

Those were on slower surfaces, but it’s important to note that though things are quicker here, Djokovic’s big issue as it pertains to his seeming decline is that his offensive game seems to have taken a step back. If that’s the case and Musetti has more time on return, I think he has displayed the ability to go toe-to-toe with Djokovic in the past.

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