Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction, Free Pick, Odds, Stats, Form, H2H, April 11th

The next preview from the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters features the ATP No. 1, as it’s Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti for a spot in the quarterfinals. Musetti’s win probability is only 22.3% while Djokovic is favored to win at 1.24 odds. The handicap is 4.5 games and the total games line is 21. We have more tennis tips over on the Expert Insights page for additional coverage of the Monte Carlo Masters. Our Djokovic vs Musetti prediction is for Djokovic to cover the 4.5-game handicap.

Djokovic vs Musetti Prediction: Djokovic to Avenge 2023 Loss on Thursday

• Prediction: Djokovic -4.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.93
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 1:30 am UK Time on April th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Musetti won this match last year. Musetti likes slow surfaces. Djokovic has admitted that he starts the clay season slowly.

These will be the three primary reasons that you see from anyone betting on the Italian in Monte Carlo tomorrow. Those and the home crowd since Italians are always supported well in Monte Carlo (that may be a disadvantage, considering how much Djokovic steps up when the crowd is against him).

Those are all decent points – heck, I used one of those points in my reasoning to back Musetti in his match with fellow young gun Arthur Fils.

That said, Djokovic played his best early-round match in Monte Carlo in years in the opening round. Taking off Miami after looking sluggish at Tennis Paradise appears to have been a great decision.

If he’s not in a slump, it’s hard to see where he struggles with someone like Musetti. He doesn’t make an abundance of mistakes, his court coverage and shotmaking in the corners are incredible and we know he can take his openings offensively. If he’s playing his best tennis, this is a great matchup for the prolific veteran. Plus, even if his minimal amount of time on the court tired him out, he was one of the few players playing Thursday that had Wednesday off.

Novak Djokovic Recent Form

After being stunned and hit off the court by the most in-form tennis player in the world Jannik Sinner down under at the Australian Open, Djokovic elected to play Indian Well, and….it did not go well.

After scraping by in three sets against a quick court specialist and fringe tour-level pro in Aleksandar Vukic, the top-ranked player in the world was sent packing by Luca Nardi; a young Italian that idolizes the greatest to ever play the sport.

He took off to Miami, claiming it was a pre-planned break. Even if it wasn’t, it was an advisable one. He’s back on court this week though and after disappointing here for several years now, all eyes were on him to see how he’d fare against big-hitting, aggressive Russian Roman Safiullin. He didn’t disappoint. Djokovic lost just one game as he breezed into the final 16 and just like that, he’s one of the two tournament favorites along with Sinner.

Playing at a decent level, he is just too strong for Musetti, and without super heavy shots to push him back or any kind of power to hit through him, Musetti is going to be tough when it comes to constructing points.

Finally, if this was a -5 or -5.5 game handicap, I can easily pass, understanding last year may have been an aberration, but 5.5 games is a tough sell.

4.5 games can be as little as one break per set. If we find the lopsided set I’d expect Djokovic to put up, this number also becomes one that can be covered in a third set if needed.

Lorenzo Musetti Recent Form

I think many who bet on Djokovic will convince themselves that Musetti’s form is a key component in why it’s a smart bet. If I’m being honest, I don’t think that’s even the case. The season did begin poorly for him, but that’s not too surprising considering the court speeds on conditions in January and February.

Recently, he’s looked much better. He had two impressive wins in Miami, his loss last week was to an inspired Nuno Borges on Portuguese soil in a match I thought the Italian acquitted himself in very well, and he’s now had two strong performances in Monaco.

Perhaps the turn of form is why we’re seeing some value in Djokovic. The thing is, even playing well, I’m suspect of his chances against a version of Djokovic that looks like he may be back to his normal self.

Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti H2H – Stat of the Match

Before last year’s shocking Musetti upset (which did occur from a set down I might add), Djokovic had dominated this matchup.

Musetti snagged a few tiebreaks at the French Open a few years ago from him before he ran out of gas and Djokovic crushed him before he retired in the fifth set and then the two best-of-three Djokovic wins were fairly lopsided. Those were on hard courts, to be fair to Musetti, but it does speak to the fact that Musetti has so little to hurt him.

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