Novak Djokovic vs Alex de Minaur Prediction, Odds, Form, H2H, 4/12/24

The third match of the day from the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters is Novak Djokovic vs Alex de Minaur. After working his way into form against Lorenzo Musetti, can the world No. 1 keep it going? Our Djokovic vs de Minaur suggestion is below!

De MInaur’s win probability is 23.9% while Djokovic is favored to win at 1.27 odds. The handicap is 4.5 games and the total games line is 21.

Djokovic vs de Minaur Prediction: Djokovic to Win but Slow Start Could be More Costly

It was another iffy start from Djokovic on Thursday. It’s been a season where the tennis just isn’t quite at the level we’ve come to expect from the greatest of all time.

He struggled early on with errors, starting points, and playing on the return of serve overall against Musetti. Sure, he came back to dominate as the match wore on, but if he starts similarly against the Aussie, I’m not sure he’ll have the chance to come back and win the first set.

Further, something I’ve noticed for a while now is that the added power and aggression we’ve seen him play with in the last two years or so isn’t nearly as potent. Playing against one of the fastest players on the ATP Tour and best ball retrievers out there, I don’t know if the regular point construction will be enough to win points on a consistent enough basis against de Minaur to cover a fairly hefty handicap, even if the man they call “demon” isn’t at his best on a slower clay court.

More previews and a few tips can be found on the expert insights page.

Novak Djokovic Recent Form

Perhaps he’s gearing up for a three-month span that includes two grand slams and the Olympics – a gold medal is the one thing that has eluded the decorated legend in his career – but his early season hasn’t been inspiring in the least.

The aforementioned lack of power has been noticeable and he’s yet to dominate more than a match or two in the way one would expect.

If he can ramp up his hitting from the baseline, that should all change pretty quickly, but at the moment it’s tough to rely on him to cover these handicaps. He was well poised to exploit the lack of Musetti’s power and more error-prone nature than someone like de Minaur. Even then, it feels like I got away with one betting on him on Thursday.

Alex de Minaur Recent Form

Clay has never been de Minaur’s favorite surface. He’s another hard courter that has incredible consistency from the baseline and enjoys playing prolonged rallies that should have some success on the dirt as a result, but it just hasn’t been the case, and oftentimes, comfort on a surface, movement, sliding and the trajectory of the bounce can all be off-putting for guys that prefer hard courts.

He has been training a lot more in Spain in recent years, however, and that may pay dividends in the next clay season or so.

He certainly has started this clay swing in fine form, dropping just one set from seven, and has won all three matches he’s played by an average margin of over five games.

If he can pounce on Djokovic’s serve early and find a way to construct consistent holds of serve, there’s certainly a path to victory to be had against a Djokovic who hasn’t looked like his dominant self so far in 2024.

Novak Djokovic vs Alex de Minaur H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have played twice, with each man winning one match. Last year at the Australian Open, Djokovic eviscerated the now-No. 11. This year at the United Cup, also on de Minaur’s turf, the Aussie paid him back with a shocking straight sets win.

This does have the feel of a match that could see a similar scoreline to both the lopsided Djokovic win or the de Minaur upset, depending on where the veteran’s level is at and how is movement is.

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