Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Yannick Hanfmann Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 2/24/25

It’s a packed schedule to end February. The ATP Tour has three stops, while the Challenger circuit has another four tournaments being played. For our first preview of the week, we’ll look at the match kicking things off in Chile at the Movistar Chile Open and Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Yannick Hanfmann.

Hanfmann’s win probability is up to 44% after a flurry of early money came in backing the big German, while Diaz Acosta is favoured to win at 1.69 odds. The handicap is two games and the total games line is 22.

Jon Reid’s Diaz Acosta vs Hanfmann prediction is for the match to be a tightly-contested one.

Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Yannick Hanfmann Prediction: Two Solid Clay Players Should Play a Close Match

• Prediction: Over 22 Games
• Best Odds: 1.88
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 12:30 am UK Time on February 24th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

This match has a few of the dynamics at play that I like to have on my side when looking to bet a match to go over the total. First, two fairly evenly matched players. If we get two players that are both more than capable of winning a set against the other in any given match, that obviously increases the likelihood we’re going to get more than 22 games.

Then there’s the altitude, which is going to make first serves a bit more impactful, which allows both men to find more cheap points and make holding serve a bit easier.

Finally, while I’d say only Hanfmann has a big serve in this contest, he’s also a guy that could struggle on return – especially if Diaz Acosta is smart enough to use his lefty game to pick on Hanfmann backhand.

I’d have this either 22.5 or 23 games as my total, so there’s value in playing the 22.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Facundo Diaz Acosta Recent Form

Somehow, the lefty that is widely seen as a clay court specialist has actually been better on quicker hard courts than on the dirt through two months in 2025.

After what can only be considered a successful January for the 24-year-old, he lost both his clay matches during the Golden Swing and he lost them both from a set up as well.

That also means he wasn’t able to defend his title in his native Argentina from 2024 and is now ranked outside of the top-100. He doesn’t have many points to defend in the next month or two, so I’m sure he’ll be looking to pick up some points before Barcelona, where he has to defend a quarterfinal run.

Last season at altitude, Diaz Acosta played his fair share of close matches and three setters. That’s not necessarily predictive, but it’s certainly something we’d like to see continue on Monday!

Yannick Hanfmann Recent Form

Another guy who prefers the clay, but couldn’t manage to win a match last week in Rio de Janeiro, Hanfmann is also looking to kick start his season. He’s done well in altitude on the clay in the past and it’s no surprise why. He combines a bigger serve with a topspin-based game from the baseline that works really well in thinner air.

He’s made the quarterfinals here and deep runs in Gstaad and Kitzbuhel in years past, and he’s qualified and reached the third round of the Madrid Masters as well.

I think both he and Diaz Acosta are solid on this surface and both should have paths to victory, so sticking with the over is best in this one.

Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Yannick Hanfmann H2H – Stat of the Match

Hanfmann has two wins to Diaz Acosta’s one in the three times they’ve squared off. The two have split their clay meetings though and the quick court encounter went to three sets, so we have seen these two play one another competitively in the past.

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