Alex de Minaur vs Jordan Thompson Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, September 2nd

Our second preview for Monday’s action at the U.S. Open comes from the Alex de Minaur vs Jordan Thompson match.

Thompson’s win probability is in the 25% range, while de Minaur is favoured to win at 1.29 odds. The handicap is six games and the total games line is 36.

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Alex de Minaur vs Jordan Thompson Prediction: Underdog Potentially a Tad Undervalued

While I’m tempted to bet on Thompson, I would like a number in the 4.50-5.00 range to do so. I don’t think de Minaur has been affected by an absence from the tour nearly as much as people expected coming into the tournament.

That said, the first serve percentage for long stretches has been a big concern and I think that his patented athleticism and ability to grind from the baseline may not be nearly as effective against his countryman that can play for long periods in tough conditions without being affected physically all that often.

Thompson’s first serve is also a weapon that may not net a slew of free points against a returner like de Minaur, but combined with his net game, could generate plenty of easy volleys coming back over the centre of the net that he can put away.

Now, those are a few strengths the elder of the Aussies may lean on, but ultimately, de Minaur is still a bit better at just about everything than Thompson and it’s tough to see where Thompson finds the necessary edge to take three sets off the world No. 10.

Alex de Minaur Recent Form

In his first tournament since Wimbledon, de Minaur has done his job as one of the higher seeds and made the second week.

It hasn’t been the most convincing of runs though, with a near choke from two sets and a break up against Marcos Giron, needing a few close sets against a physically ailing Otto Virtanen and then playing Dan Evans very close before he wore the Brit down and ran away with the final two sets.

The first serve percentage has been a major concern, and when coupled with his lack of offensive play from the baseline could be a major concern.

He’s still shown incredible stamina and defensive abilities though. Some of the best in the game. That’s enough for me to believe he should be a big favourite in this particular matchup. Thompson doesn’t miss much, but from the baseline he doesn’t go all that big on his shots and should find it really tough to hit through de Minaur, especially when he can’t rely on unforced errors to bail him out.

Jordan Thompson Recent Form

Back on hard courts, Thompson is back in his element. The serve has worked well this week, but when he’s come up against strong players this summer he has struggled. A lot.

Alexander Zverev lost just two games to him and Sebastian Korda beat him in routine fashion. Their common trait? Decent returners.

That’s something he’s going to have to contend with again. He’s won plenty of matches this summer, but outside of a less-than-100% Hubert Hurkacz, he lacks a real signature win.

His best chance is de Minaur falling into that “physically less than 100%” camp in this contest.

Alex de Minaur vs Jordan Thompson H2H – Stat of the Match

As I mentioned earlier, it’s tough to construct a path to victory for Thompson here. There’s certainly a chance he wins and we don’t know if de Minaur does finally start to feel the effects of his first tournament on the pro circuit in a while, but I don’t think we can make the case for value at 4.00.

The prior head-to-head favours de Minaur by a margin of 4-1. I think with the added set needed to advance, things favour the 25-year-old even more.

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