Alex de Minaur vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 4/10/25

We’re back after a few days off with more previews and bets from the ATP’s Monte Carlo Masters. We have an action-packed slate on Thursday as the final 16 will be halved into eight quarterfinalists. Let’s start with Alex de Minaur vs Daniil Medvedev.

Medvedev’s win probability is 46%, while de Minaur is favoured to win at 1.78 odds. The handicap is one game and the total games line is 22.5.

Jon Reid’s de Minaur vs Medvedev prediction is for de Minaur to win.

Alex de Minaur vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction: de Minaur More Reliable in Battle of Consistent 

• Prediction: de Minaur to win
• Best Odds: 1.79
• Bookmaker: SX Betting Exchange
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 3:30 am UK Time on April 10th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Though neither of these two would prefer clay courts or is at his best on the red dirt, I do think de Minaur is able to translate his game a bit more to clay.

They both play an incredibly consistent style that does tend to be rewarded in these kinds of conditions and I think we’ve seen de Minaur train more in Spain and on clay looking to improve during this part of the calendar in recent years. 

He’s also one of the very few players that can match the combination of endurance and baseline solidity that Medvedev possesses and now that Medvedev’s serve has dropped off a bit, the one thing that really allowed the world No. 11 to have a leg up on de Minaur doesn’t seem to be nearly as big of a potential issue for the Aussie.

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Alex de Minaur Recent Form

Things have gone decently to start 2025 for de Minaur. He’s still struggled with the guys at the very top of the game who can push him around with their firepower from the baseline and take the match off his racquet, but he’s still been stellar for the most part otherwise and is a top-10 player for his efforts (just ahead of his opponent in this tilt, who has slipped a bit in recent times).

I still think that the ceiling is a bit too low for de Minaur to ever reach the heights of world No. 1 or become a grand slam champion, but as he continues to improve his game bit by bit, he certainly continues to solidify his position in the upper echelons of the sport.

With he and Medvedev possibly being on opposite trajectories right now, I don’t mind backing him as a small favourite on a slower clay court.

Daniil Medvedev Recent Form

Though he started the year winning 66% of his matches, that number isn’t what one would expect from someone who was one of the best hard court players in the world. What’s worse is that the seven losses weren’t at the hands of elite players either.

Plenty of players that managed to emerge victorious against Medvedev have plenty of talent, but there’s a reason so many were such big underdogs at the time the matches took place.

I mentioned the dropoff in his service game earlier and when you consider the fact that he doesn’t have all that much variety to his game or real big power from the baseline from either wing, losing effectiveness with one of the two or three foundational aspects to his game can have a major impact on his results.

That seems to be what’s happening quite often this season, as he’s had far more trouble dealing with lower ranked players than he should.

Alex de Minaur vs Daniil Medvedev H2H – Stat of the Match

Medvedev has beaten de Minaur in seven of the 10 meetings in the past. Now, many have been close and the lone match on this surface came last year at the French Open where de Minaur actually got the best of him.

We’ll see if Medvedev can find his level again after some uninspiring matches to start this tournament, but judging by what we’ve seen in recent months, I wouldn’t bank on it.

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