Alex de Minaur vs Miomir Kecmanovic Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 10/30/24

Our other preview from the Rolex Paris Masters comes from the Alex de Minaur vs Miomir Kecmanovic match.

Kecmanovic’s win probability is only 26%, while de Minaur is favored to win at 1.30 odds. The handicap is four games and the total games line is 21.5.

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Jon Reid’s de Minaur vs Kecmanovic prediction is for Kecmanovic to keep things close.

Alex de Minaur vs Miomir Kecmanovic Prediction: Too Much Respect for a Favourite Still Looking for His Best Level

• Predictions: Kecmanovic +1.5 sets & Kecmanovic to win
• Best Odds: 2.00 & 3.80
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10 & 1/10

Odds updated at 12:30 am UK Time on October 30th, 2024. 

I think the Aussie has been on the right side of draw luck since coming back from an injury break after the U.S. Open. We’ll take a closer look at his matches in recent weeks below, but suffice it to say, he has been rather uninspiring in Antwerp and Vienna.

Kecmanovic hasn’t been great either, but he’s played plenty of close sets against strong opponents and with his slap-happy, low-margin style that hits into small targets, the high-risk, high-reward style at these prices against a fairly out-of-form favorite is something I’m happy to take a flyer on.

Alex de Minaur Recent Form

I’m sure de Minaur is happy with the fact that he’s now 5-2 during the late-season indoor hardcourt swing, but if we look at things with a bit more context – as one should if they want to find an edge in betting.

His one strong win came via retirement against Flavio Cobolli after the opening set went to a tiebreak. The rest? A pair of clay courters (Mariano Navone and Roberto Carballes Baena) that he struggled with for at least one set, an equally rusty Jan Lennard Struff who was also coming back after a bit of an absence, and a tiring Jakub Mensik who also took the first set from him.

Even one of his losses came as a massive favorite against an underpowered clay courter in Hugo Gaston. The other was a routine loss to Karen Khachanov – the one player he could’ve made a statement again to prove his level was returning.

I’m still not sold that he should be priced as if he’s at his best and a top-10 player just yet so I’ll oppose him, even if I’m not Kecmanovic’s biggest fan.

Miomir Kecmanovic Recent Form

Close wins and close losses. The modus operandi of Kecmanovic. After beating Nicolas Jarry in a third-set tiebreak in Stockholm, Kecmanovic was neck-and-neck with Tommy Paul for a set before tailing off.

Then in Vienna, it was a nice win against a clay courter before one break of serve margin of loss to the talented Mensik.

Then this week, he won a match in qualifying, lost the next in a tight affair against Marcos Giron, and then won a tight contest against Sebastian Baez as a lucky loser.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not going to try and sell you on Kecmanovic as some great player. He has patches of amazing play and others where he is slapping unforced errors left, right and center. It’s the price here that makes this such an enticing bet, along with de Minaur’s rather plain play.

Alex de Mianur vs Miomir Kecmanovic H2H – Stat of the Match

Kecmanovic has the lone win in the series between these two. That came several years ago and on a slow, outdoor hard court though. I wouldn’t hang my hat on that result if betting Kecmanovic. I think the overvaluation on a rather sluggish de Minaur is what makes this more enticing.

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