Alex de Minaur vs Marcos Giron Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, August 27th

Our first round previews from the US Open in New York City continue on Tuesday. Let’s take a look at Alex de Minaur vs Marcos Giron, as the Aussie makes his return to tour after a brief absence through injury. He has a nice draw, but is he up to the task physically?

Giron’s win probability is only 26%, while de Minaur is favoured to win at 1.31 odds. The handicap is 5.5 games and the total games line is 36.

Jon Reid’s de Minaur vs Giron prediction is for de Minaur to cover the handicap.

Alex de Minaur vs Marcos Giron Prediction: Top Tier Aussie Too Strong for Giron

• Prediction: de Minaur -5.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.97
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds updated at 10:45 pm UK Time on August 26th, 2024.

If this handicap hadn’t been so heavily bet in the American’s favour, I probably would have avoided getting involved. The fact that we’ve seen this go from a -6 game handicap when the match was posted (at 1.81 odds, no less) to -5 games at 1.82 has forced me to get involved.

This is all based on de Minaur not having played since Wimbledon. Is that a bit of an overreaction? Absolutely. Taking nothing from Giron’s career season, he’s done very little against strong players and his success at ATP 250s has seen him beat some poor opposition or players that have had horrendous 2024 seasons.

It’s not a professional event, but the fact that de Minaur at least got in some pre-U.S. Open action by playing the UTS exhibition event in New York is somewhat reassuring.

I’ll trust he’s fit and ready to go on Tuesday. If that’s the case, he’s far too strong for someone like Giron.

You can find more U.S. Open content over on the expert insights page.

Alex de Minaur Recent Form

We haven’t seen de Minaur since Wimbledon due to injury, and the lack of play is clearly driving the market to back Giron. Though it isn’t tour level tennis and is played in an entirely different format, he did play a few exhibition UTS events last week though, taking on Denis Shapovalov and Alexander Bublik. That’s a bit of a comfort, as it would’ve at the very least allowed him to shake off any of the rust he might’ve had.

Outside of that, this seems like a pretty decent matchup for de Minaur. Giron has a fairly explosive serve and forehand combo, but de Minaur is probably one of the best returners and athletes in the top-25. He’s also improved his own offensive game a lot in recent years.

It can still struggle against some of the guys at the very top of the game, but against someone like Giron who hasn’t really proven anything outside of some weaker ATP 250s, he should have plenty to get him through relatively quickly.

Marcos Giron Recent Form

Outside of four middling wins in Newport to take down his first title at the age of 31 (credit to him for that – not many can stick around and claim a maiden title at that age), it’s been a horrible stretch of tournaments since February.

In fact, even in February when he was finding success, it was at North American 250 tournaments when many of the better players on tour were in Europe.

He’s done a great job scheduling and beating up on weaker fields, but outside of two or three matches against poor returners on grass, he lacks any real signature wins. Perhaps he can take advantage of a de Minaur that hasn’t played much lately, but I have him losing comfortably.

Alex de Minaur vs Marcos Giron H2H – Stat of the Match

This head-to-head has actually been favourable to Giron. He leads 3-1, but none of those matches have been played since the start of the 2022 campaign. With some of those being indoors, where Giron would’ve been able to hold serve more easily than he will be able to here against the strong returning of de Minaur, I’m not going to put much weight into matches that took place so long ago.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.