Alex de Minaur vs Hugo Gaston Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 10/18/24

Our first preview for Friday’s quarterfinal action around the ATP Tour comes from the European Open as we go over Alex de Minaur vs Hugo Gaston.

Gaston’s win probability is only 16.5%, while de Minaur is favored to win at 1.16 odds. The handicap is five games and the total games line is 20.5.

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Jon Reid’s prediction for de Minaur vs Gaston is that de Mianur will win fairly quickly.

Alex de Minaur vs Hugo Gaston Prediction: Trust de Minaur to Have Shaken Off the Rust

• Prediction: Under 20.5 Games & Under 20 Games
• Best Odds: 1.83 & 1.95
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10 & 2/10

Odds updated at 1:00 am UK Time on October 18th, 2024. 

Though the courts may be quicker here and lend themselves to closer matches being played, if there’s a match I’ll back a heavy favorite in to get the job done in short order, it’s this one.

Gaston is far from a tour-level pro. The matchup is horrible, and though he made this stage last year as well, he’s still struggled on serve despite the quick conditions.

To be fair, De Minaur did have a tough start this week, but the opening set against Roberto Carballes Baena can likely be explained by the rust in his game after not playing since the U.S. Open. Once he found his rhythm, he took over and won the final two sets fairly handily.

Taking on another underpowered opponent here, I’d expect him to do the same without the slow start.

He has the athleticism and court coverage to deal with the variety of Gaston, return prowess to consistently pressure the weaker serve, and is the aggressor in this matchup.

Alex de Minaur Recent Form

The Australian No. 1 hadn’t played since the U.S. Open prior to his last match and it showed early on. He struggled to land his first serve or play front-foot tennis against a clay courter that was up to the task when it came to just keeping himself in rallies and waiting for errors.

Once de Minaur shook off the rust though, he took over the match. Luckily for him, he has a very similar opponent this time around. Variety-based and underpowered are not the characteristics you want when taking on de Minaur on a hard court. He can run down the drop shots, play more aggressive tennis and match your consistency from the baseline.

With the poor tennis hopefully out of his system, he should dispatch Gaston without much resistance.

Hugo Gaston Recent Form

Gaston has been pretty poor for the most part this season, with a run to the final in Kitzbuhel propping him up. Since that run, however, he’d lost six straight matches on hard courts before somehow managing to defend his quarterfinal points from a year ago this week.

Playing a journeyman Challenger Tour guy and then a clay courter explain how he managed that.

In fact, off of clay in 2024, the 24-year-old has been pretty poor. Now taking on someone who matches up well with him, is much better on the surface and is one of the top players in the sport, I wouldn’t expect much.

Alex de Minaur vs Hugo Gaston H2H – Stat of the Match

Gaston won the only match between these two, but it took place two years ago and on clay, which is a far more favorable surface to the Frenchman – especially back in 2022 before de Minaur had really put in much work on the dirt.

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