Alex de Minaur vs Grigor Dimitrov Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 4/11/25

Our first bet of the day from the ATP Monte Carlo Masters is in the Alex de Minaur vs Grigor Dimitrov. Can the Australian continue to improve his results on the clay? Or does Dimitrov back up his clutch play from the past few days with another victory?

Dimitrov’s win probability is slightly under 40%, while de Minaur is favoured to win at 1.55 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Jon Reid’s de Minaur vs Dimitrov prediction is for de Minaur to cover the handicap.

Alex de Minaur vs Grigor Dimitrov Prediction: Going Back to the Well With Solid Aussie

• Prediction: de Minaur -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: SX Betting Exchange
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 12:00 am UK Time on April 11th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Friday’s bets are going to look a lot like Thursday’s, but hey, if we are seeing value in a player’s price one day, it stands to reason that we may once again see an undervaluation in their very next match.

That’s the case for de Minaur, who I continue to be impressed by with regards to the strides he’s made on clay. Look, his lack of power is always going to be somewhat of an issue against the elite ball strikers who are also comfortable on clay, and I’m sure he’ll always prefer quicker courts where he has more experience and his game looks a little more imposing, but his physicality, solidity and the improved forehand for these courts has me optimistic that during this portion of the calendar, he can still put up enough points to keep himself in the top-10 in the world.

The other plus for him on the day? Though Dimitrov may still be a very good player on the clay, it’s not exactly his best surface either.

The aggressive power style is more built for quicker courts and conditions and though his quality still means it takes strong opposition to beat him, it’s certainly the surface where someone that can make things physical like de Minaur can should want to play him in order to amplify that advantage.

I’m also unconvinced by Dimitrov’s form on the week against some players that I’d normally expect him to dominate. Now, those are small samples and could have been a certain matchup issue on the day, but it’s still something to consider in a handicap.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Alex de Minaur Recent Form

Well, we went over de Minaur’s form yesterday in our preview against Daniil Medvedev and so let’s quickly gloss over it again.

It’s been a strong start to 2025 on the whole for de Minaur, but I think it’s fair to say March didn’t go as well as he would’ve liked, especially relative to some of the success he had in the opening five or six weeks of the year.

Now, he’s looked decent this week, doling out losses to Tomas Machac and Medvedev and other than his first set of the tournament, he’s been on an absolute roll, winning his last four sets 6-, 6-3, 6-2 and 6-2.

His ability to return really becomes a strength in the slowest conditions on tour, while his elite ball retrieval and ability to extend rallies also helps a great deal. Then there’s the physicality. That’s where I think he has his biggest edge over the current iteration of Dimitrov and it also means that the defending and returning – both of which can eat up energy reserves for many – are sustainable strengths throughout a match and don’t fade as matches go on.

He’s also spent very little time on court this week, which should prove to be something else that gives him a leg up.

Grigor Dimitrov Recent Form

I’ve tried hard this week not to oppose Dimitrov too much, as it’s become apparent that although he prefers quicker surfaces, he’s still more than capable of beating lesser opposition on clay.

I’ll consider not having opposed him twice in three matches a success. Naturally, the match I did oppose him, where I thought a clay court player in Nicolas Jarry was presenting some value, was the only one he won in straight sets.

Needing a deciding set to beat Valentin Vacherot (I wouldn’t fault you for not knowing the big-hitting Monegasque, as he spends almost all his time down on the Challenger circuit) and Alejandro Tabilo (who has some quality in his game but has been subpar in 2025) isn’t the most inspiring two-match sequence.

He’s likely to receive far fewer mistakes from his opponent on Friday than he did in his other three contests, he’s also more likely to have to work long points than any of those three matches and this is also the highest quality opponent he’s seen in Monte Carlo by a fairly wide margin.

Alex de Minaur vs Grigor Dimitrov H2H – Stat of the Match

This will be the sixth time the two veterans have met. De Minaur actually leads 3-2, but even though that may seem encouraging, I think we have to provide important context. None of those five prior contests have been played on a clay court and since the start of the 2023 season, they’ve come up against one another twice in Rotterdam, splitting the meetings.

For me, this is more about the form, physicality and adjustments on clay than it is about a slight lead historically for de Minaur.

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