Alex de Minaur vs Felix Auger Aliassime Prediction, Expert Picks, Odds, News, H2H, May 13th

With a new week, we’re getting to the business end of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia in Rome. For our first ATP preview of the week, let’s look at Jon Reid’s de Minaur vs Auger Aliassime prediction.

Auger Aliassime’s win probability comes in at 41.3% while de Minaur is favored to win at 1.63 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

de Minaur vs Auger Aliassime Prediction: de Minaur Defence to Prove Decisive

• Prediction: de Minaur to win & de Minaur -2.5 games
• Best Odds: 1.63 & 1.93
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10 & 2/10

Odds as of 1:30 am UK Time on May 13th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I’ve been waiting for a chance to oppose Auger Aliassime after his deep run in Madrid that featured one strong win, a close loss, and a string of wins that came via walkover or retirement.

His last match didn’t fit the bill, with Botic van de Zandschulp being in terrible form himself, also being error-prone, and having an unreliable backhand. Even then, he was a point from sending that one three sets before collapsing from a double break lead in the second set.

There’s also the fact that Rome doesn’t suit the Canadian nearly as much as Madrid did, with a return to sea level and conditions not being as forgiving for bigger servers and hard hitters.

Finally, we have the perfect opponent to oppose him with. de Minaur struggles at times in slower conditions as well, but his issue stems more from his inability to generate as much offense. He can, however, defend, run down balls, prolong rallies, and play like a rock from the baseline, all of which should come in handy against an Auger Aliassime who has shown us he struggles to avoid reverting to the error-prone play we’ve become accustomed for more than a match or two at a time. Our de Minaur vs Auger Aliassime prediction is for de Minaur to win and cover the -2.5 games handicap.

More previews from the tennis in Rome over on the expert insights page.

Alex de Minaur Recent Form

Now 5-3 on the season on the dirt, I’m sure de Minaur is looking forward to getting to the grass season. A chance at a fourth round of another Masters clay court event has to be top of mind on Monday though, as he should be able to outlast a more erratic opponent and lock up a few more points on a surface he’s worked hard to improve on but hasn’t yet put up the big results.

His loss to Arthur Fils wasn’t the most inspiring considering how poorly the Frenchman has played, but the one match Rafael Nadal looked really strong in and a loss to Novak Djokovic? Those losses are nothing to hang one’s head over.

He started his campaign with a rock-solid win (albeit against an underpowered Roberto Carballes Baena) and it’s the ability to elicit those mistakes that makes me confident he can come through this match as well.

Felix Auger Aliassime Recent Form

The 23-year-old may have reached the final in the Spanish capital last week, but let’s keep in mind, that he played a total of two sets of tennis to achieve three of those wins and even in the final he lost in close fashion, he played against an Andrey Rublev who spoke about not sleeping and being very sick for several days at the end of the tournament.

His first match in Rome looked like he’d picked up where he left off, before the mistakes started to pile up in the second set, giving us a glimpse of the player we’d become all too used to watching in the last year and a half or so.

If he can hammer away and hit through both the slower conditions in Rome and the elite defensive capabilities of de Minaur, then he deserves a tip of the cap. Assuming he can do so more than 40% of the time? That I have to firmly disagree with.

Alex de Minaur vs Felix Auger Aliassime H2H – Stat of the Match

Auger Aliassime has gotten the better of de Minaur in the past, leading the head-to-head battle 3-1. The only two matches in the last few years came back in 2022, both won by the world No. 20, but both came on hard courts and on faster courts, where Auger Aliassime had a big advantage with his serve and his ability to keep points shorter served him well.

Let’s see if the series record comes into play, or if context matters and a match years later on a different surface with Auger Aliassime not in the same form he was a few years ago changes things.

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