Jesper de Jong vs Denis Yevseyev Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, August 21st

For our other U.S. Open qualifying preview from the men’s side of things, let’s look at Jesper de Jong vs Denis Yevseyev. It’s an interesting battle between a solid, reliable player and an underrated, mercurial talent who can play on all surfaces.

Yevseyev’s win probability is only 27%, while de Jong is favoured to win at 1.29 odds. The handicap is 4.5 games and the total games line is 21.5.

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Our de Jong vs Yevseyev prediction is for Yevseyev to win.

Jesper de Jong vs Denis Yevseyev Prediction: Underdog Capable of Pulling Off Upset

• Prediction: Yevseyev +1.5 sets & Yevseyev to win
• Best Odds: 1.97 & 3.65
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle & Unibet
• Stakes: 3/10 & 1/10

Odds updated at 12:00 am UK Time on August 21st, 2024. 

Betting Yevseyev is always a fun (or frustrating) exercise, with the Kazakh able to play on all courts and having a decently well rounded game, but also lacking the motivation to always compete (to put it kindly).

Tanking and even fixing are accusations the 31-year-old has faced in the past, but when he’s locked in, it’s hard to deny that he can compete at the upper levels of the Challenger Tour or even compete at a main tour 250 tournament or two.

Now, if you’re going to bet someone like that, the best time to do it has to be when they’re a big underdog. You have a nice, low break even percentage, minimising risk with plenty of upside.

You’d also ideally back them when they’re going up against an opponent that isn’t on their preferred surface. Enter de Jong, who is far more of a clay courter than hard court player.

At these kinds of odds, I’m happy to waste a few bucks if he’s going to tank. Considering it’s a grand slam qualifying draw with so much money at stake, this is one of the least likely places for that to happen though.

Jesper de Jong Recent Form

The Dutchman has a decent record on this surface for his career and I’m sure the data flatters him as a result. I’m more of a qualitative guy and prefer to look at who he has played, rather than just looking at the stats he’s amassed.

Last year a lot of his wins on the hard courts came at the ITF level. The year prior, he had several more wins on the professional game’s lowest rung. This season? 8-3, all above the Challenger level, but he played an injured player in one win, had five wins against clay-centric opposition (including the first round on Monday) and Jesse Delaney – a no name player barely inside the top-1000.

I think there’s a bit of overhyping go on here with de Jong, and I’ll hope Yevseyev can take advantage to help me cash a nice ticket.

Denis Yevseyev Recent Form

In true Yevseyev fashion, the Kazakhstani pro entered this match on a three match losing skid for his hard court summer, with no sets won and an average margin of defeat of six games.

That’s the thing with Yevseyev, he could be on fire and completely unravel the next day (see Wimbledon qualifying in the final round) or he could be completely out of form and then show up and dominate. That’s precisely what he did against a player with almost no hard court experience, losing just one game en route to this stage of the qualifying draw.

He also has some decent Challenger runs on hard courts from earlier in the season and has better wins than de Jong can boast on the surface in 2024.

There’s no way I’d trust him at 2.50 or 2.75 odds. At 3.65, however, it’s an easy, low-risk proposition to bet on.

Jesper de Jong vs Denis Yevseyev H2H – Stat of the Match

The lone meeting between these two was three years ago. It came on a hard court and de Jong did win that match. It was a three setter though, and Yevseyev had the lead before losing the set 0-6 (see, I wasn’t kidding when it comes to his antics).

Considering their form on hard courts and quicker surfaces this year, I wouldn’t argue that the more consistent and reliable de Jong should be a favourite, but this is a bit much.

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