Jesper de Jong vs Enzo Couacaud Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 23/9/24

Our second preview of the day comes from the opening round of action at the Dove Men+Care Antofagasta tournament down on the ATP Challenger Tour. It’s a match between two of the better players in the entire draw. Let’s look at Jesper de Jong vs Enzo Couacaud.

Couacaud’s win probability is 43%, with de Jong the favorite at 1.62 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.

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Our de Jong vs Couacaud prediction is for de Jong to cover the handicap.

Jesper de Jong vs Enzo Couacaud Prediction: Despite Tough Opponent, Dutchman Undervalued in Opening Round

• Prediction: de Jong -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.88
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated at 12:00 am UK Time on September 23rd, 2024. 

This is the second time Couacuad has ventured down to South America to play in the clay Challengers that don’t pose nearly as many problems in terms of tough opposition as those on his home continent do. The first trip went very well, with Couacaud winning a tournament and reaching the final in another. There were some wins during those runs that probably should’ve been more straightforward though.

This time, he’s beaten a few lowly-ranked players in Cali, while losing to the first quality player he took on in Hugo Dellien – who hasn’t been great this year himself – and the problem with taking on de Jong here is that the world No. 131 is in a different league for me in terms of quality to almost any other player in this draw.

With the Chilean Challenger offering 100 points, it was almost certain someone was going to come down to try and pick up a potential 100 points that would be much tougher in Europe. De Jong is that guy. Unfortunately, he received about as tough of an opening-round matchup as he could, but it doesn’t change the fact that he’s my tournament favorite and should be closer to 3.5 games on the handicap against someone like Couacaud.

Jesper de Jong Recent Form

I don’t think it’d be going too far to label this season a success to this point for the 24-year-old. He’s played very well on his preferred surface, and his 24-12 record on the surface is bolstered even more by the fact that many of his losses recently have been against high-level opponents.

He has a title at this level in Sassuolo, qualified at the French Open, upset Jack Draper as a huge underdog, and even took a set off of Carlos Alcaraz.

Along with Alcaraz, other recent losses on the surface have come against Alexander Zverev and Laslo Djere (both strong clay courters on the main tour).

Even his hard court play has been okay recently, as he was one set away from qualifying at the U.S. Open against a natural hard courter and then was a set from the final in Istanbul, losing by the closest of margins in the third set tiebreak against Damir Dzumhur, the man who has won more Challenger tournaments than anyone else in 2024.

As much as Couacaud can be a tough draw, it’s taken a higher level of competitor to beat him of late, and even in some of those losses, he’s been pretty close to victory.

Enzo Couacaud Recent Form

As well as Couacaud has played in matches where he should be winning, he’s struggled to pull off many upsets of late. We haven’t seen him win as an underdog since his run to the title in Florianopolis in April and I think that helps provide context to some of his better play and decent win-loss record.

I’m a believer in Couacaud, but his level this year has left me shaking my head far too much for me to give him an over 40% shot against a player as strong as de Jong.

As tough as this draw was for de Jong with so many other possibilities that likely would’ve led to an easier match, it was also tough on the Frenchman, who is now likely to exit in the first round, when he’s far from being one of the worst players in the draw.

Jesper de Jong vs Enzo Couacaud H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first meeting between the two.

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