Davidovich Fokina vs McDonald Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/6/25

Time to snap the cold streak and get a few wins strung together. We’re beating the market with regularity, but can’t get the players to put up the results.

We’ll start with Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mackenzie McDonald as the first round rolls on at the BNP Paribas Open.

McDonald’s win probability is at 37%, with Davidovich Fokina favoured to win at 1.52 odds. The handicap is three games and the total games line is 22.5.

Jon Reid’s Davidovich Fokina vs McDonald prediction is for Davidovich Fokina to cover the handicap.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mackenzie McDonald Prediction: In Form Spaniard to Keep Rolling in California

• Prediction: Davidovich Fokina -3 Games
• Best Odds: 1.88
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 3:15 am UK Time on March 6th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

As we continue to rack up the losers, we’ll look to snap the losing skid by backing an in form player who has everything going for him in his matchup.

Davidovich Fokina isn’t just more talented than McDonald, but he’s finally found some consistent form and is much better when the conditions slow down. McDonald is a tad too underpowered and when he’s moved off courts that help his game play up, he is far too vulnerable for today’s standard on the ATP Tour.

I have this match at 3.5-4 games on the handicap, so getting the all-important half games from -4 to -3.5 and then -3.5 to -3 is pretty big. I’ll have a go at this one.

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Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Recent Form

The tennis world has been waiting for this stretch from Davidovich Fokina for quite some time. Athleticism? He has it. Ball striking ability? He has it. Shotmaking? He has it. Willingness to come to the net? He has it.

His game is not just entertaining to watch as a tennis fan, but it’s loaded with talent. Problem is, he played unnecessarily close matches and lost so many of them in heartbreaking fashion.

Now? The decision making seems to be improving and he’s refined his approach from the baseline, not going for so many high risk, low margin for error type shots.

The result? The second week of the Australian Open, followed by a blip in Dallas where he suffered an early defeat and then back-to-back finals in Delray Beach and Acapulco. What’s more, we’ve seen him let disappointment fester in the past and carry over into future tournaments.

That was where the tennis community thought he was going after blowing a huge third set lead in that Delray Beach final (which cost him his first ATP trophy), but he bounced back in Mexico, not letting that affect him, as he came ever-so-close to that elusive title once more.

He is just so much better in slower conditions and his game is superior in so many ways to his opponent’s on Thursday. Happy to back him in this red hot form at a cheap price.

Mackenzie McDonald Recent Form

McDonald did look decent last week, making it all the way to the final of a tournament. The only problem? It was a Challenger Tour event and the players he beat were either lower calibre opponents or were ahead of him and crumbled physically.

On the primary tour, he hasn’t had much success at all, with a lopsided loss on the game handicap in Delray Beach to this very opponent just a few weeks ago.

I don’t see any kind of form against strong opposition that gives me any confidence in him, nor do I like this tournament as one where he can course correct. He may be from California and have gone to school in the state (something other handicappers are sure to point out as though it’s actionable information), but that narrative wasn’t enough to lift the level of others on the day, so I’m not sure it’s enough to overcome the disadvantage he’s likely to be at.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mackenzie McDonald H2H – Stat of the Match

I’m not the biggest believer in head-to-head records as a major handicapping tool, but in this case it lines up with the matchup advantage I believe Davidovich Fokina has against the American.

He’s won all three matches they’ve contested, including a three setter he won by an eight game margin a few weeks ago in Delray Beach, in medium slow conditions.

Matchup, conditions and form all favour the younger of the two and I’m happy to give up a three game start as a result.

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