Daria Kasatkina vs Liudmila Samsonova Prediction, H2H - 3/10/25

A pair of compatriots square off at the PNB Paribas Open, as Daria Kasatkina and Liudmila Samsonova battle for a spot in the quarterfinals of this WTA1000 event at Indian Wells.

With wins over two Americans to open the main draw, Kasatkina and Samsonova were tested in the second round. Only a year separates these players ranked 12th and 24th as they meet for the first time today in California.

EJ Garr’s prediction for Daria Kasatkina vs. Liudmila Samsonova has odds at +141, which you can find below.

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Daria Kasatkina vs Liudmila Samsonova WTA BNP Paribas Open Prediction: We’re Going The Distance

• Prediction: Match Total Over 2.5 Sets
• Best Odds:+141
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as of 7:00 am UK Time on March 10, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Daria Kasatkina and Liudmila Samsonova had a great press conference yesterday discussing their first battle on the WTA Tour. The good friends have never faced each other, and the time has finally come.

The line setters have 12th-ranked Kasatkina listed at -140 to advance to the fourth round, and her return of serve will likely be the difference-maker as to how she gets to the fourth round of this WTA1000 event.

Having faith in Samsonova to win a set might be the tallest order we fill today. Samsonova’s serve isn’t as stout as it used to be, although it should keep her around long enough to give Kasatkina a battle.

BetMGM is trying to point to a three-set match listing the odds at -220 for Samsonova to win any set and Kasatkina at -350 to the same.

I pointed out a similar line for my other preview today between Polina Kudermetova and Sonay Kartal, and it has led me to the same conclusion.

We are going the distance, and I have +333 odds at BetMGM NY for Kasatkina to win this match, 2 – 1. Samsonova isn’t going to upset Kasatkina, but it won’t stop her from giving Daria a good test at Indian Wells..

The -1.5 Games spread toward a Kasatkina win is also a bet worth making, and -115 isn’t a bad price at all.. 

Call it a hunch, but the Over 10.5 games in the first set has such lovely odds that I cannot resist a flyer on it. Pinnacle shows +324 odds for a wild opening frame, and if Samsonova is going to get to Kasatkina, she had better do it early. 

DARIA KASATKINA RECENT FORM

Daria Kasatkina is 9 – 6 to begin the 2025 campaign, although three of the losses are against top-15 ranked players on the WTA Tour.

Kasatkina cracked the top-10 of the WTA Rankings for the second time in her career last season (9th), and was 8th in 2022.

With going 40 – 23 last season, Kasatkina completed a fifth straight campaign with a winning record. She won her first grass event at Eastbourne last season, and hoisted the hardware at Ningbo as part of the Asain swing.

LIUDMILA SAMSONOVA RECENT FORM

Liudmila Samsonova has been mired in mediocrity for the last two campaigns.

After a 26 – 23 season last year, Samsonova is 7 – 6 to begin the 2025 campaign, and has yet to win back-to-back outings since the second event of the season at Adelaide..

Samsonova needed nearly two hours to defeat 491st0ranked Caty McNally to open the main draw, and was pushed to a tie-break in the opening frame before the 6 – 4 second set victory.

KASATKINA VS SAMSONOVA HTH –  STAT OF THE MATCH

This is meeting #1 between Kasatkina and Samsonova on the WTA Tour.

The winner of this match will face Jasmine Paolini or Jaqueline Cristian in the fourth round of the PNB Paribas Open.

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