Luciano Darderi vs Stanislas Wawrinka Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/28/25

Second preview of the day shifts from Girona to Napoli on the ATP Challenger Tour. Let’s look at Luciano Darderi vs Stanislas Wawrinka in yet another contest that could easily be found at a 250 tournament on the main tour.

Wawrinka’s win probability is only 47%, while Darderi is favoured to win at 1.70 odds. The handicap is two games and the total games line is 22.5.

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Jon Reid’s  Darderi vs Wawrinka prediction is for Darderi to win.

Luciano Darderi vs Stanislas Wawrinka Prediction: Time to Jump Off the Wawrinka Train on Friday

• Prediction: Darderi to win
• Best Odds: 1.70
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 3:30 am UK Time on March 28th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

It’s crazy how a new opponent and set of odds can have a bettor doing a total 180 on a player. That’s the case with me and Wawrinka on Friday. As much as I liked him as a larger underdog against a potentially fatiguing Borna Coric on a surface that wasn’t conducive to success for the Croatian, I’m going the other way now that he’s getting much more respect against what I consider to be a tougher opponent!

Yes, on a clay court, I rate Darderi more than Coric. He has a really nice clay court serve with decent pace, the ability to spot it and spin to protect it. He has a much stronger and more reliable forehand and now that he’s starting to look better physically and not as lethargic as he did for months after suffering an injury last summer, I trust him much more physically as well.

Luciano Darderi Recent Form

From last summer until recently, Darderi’s form had been among the worst for players on the top circuit. He was just 4-19 in his last 23 matches entering this week, but back on the clay, he’s shown signs of life this week.

More importantly, he doesn’t seem like he’s playing hampered and unable to exceed 70-80% of his best level as he had for so long throughout the summer and fall.

Back on his preferred surface and likely nearing his best physically, the next few months should be good ones (and they need to be) for the 23-year-old. Much like Lajovic, he too is playing next week, but just like our bet from the first preview, he’s already into the main draw of the tournament he’s heading to (Marrakech) and with how bad he’s been for an extended period, he certainly has all the reason in the world to keep winning as much as he can this week in front of the home Italian crowds.

Stanislas Wawrinka Recent Form

I went over Wawrinka’s form in yesterday’s preview and I do think his decision to continue playing in his late 30s has been justified. The win-loss record may not look great, but there’s no denying that he’s been competitive against decent opponents.

He also cruised past a serve-oriented Borna Gojo and then a less-than-stellar Coric who did see a big drop in his level from the win streak he had put together in previous weeks.

I didn’t see the bigger ball striking and super heavy shots I’m used to with Wawrinka on Thursday and that concerned me a bit. If he can’t consistently push Darderi behind the baseline and hold serve, he could be in trouble in this one.

Luciano Darderi vs Stanislas Wawrinka H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first time these two will meet in a battle of different generations.

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