Luciano Darderi vs Mariano Navone Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 9/24/24

Our other preview is a look ahead to the first round of the next batch of ATP tournaments. We’ll head to the Japan Open Tennis Championships to look at Luciano Darderi vs Mariano Navone.

Navone’s win probability is just above 40%, while Darderi is favored to win at 1.64 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.

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Our Darderi vs Navone prediction is for Darderi to cover the handicap.

Luciano Darderi vs Mariano Navone Prediction: Italian Much Closer to Taking a Step on Hard Courts

• Prediction: Darderi to win & Darderi -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.64 & 1.96
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10 & 3/10

Odds updated at 1:45 am UK Time on September 24th, 2024. 

There are two primary reasons Navone is overvalued here with odds above 40% to win.

The first is the fact that in a match between two clay courters, Darderi has the more explosive game and is closer to making progress on this surface than Navone. The forehand is more aggressive and not as spin-reliant (which is something that simply isn’t all that effective off the clay).

The second is that Darderi hasn’t got a great record on hard courts, but he’s been far more competitive in his losses than Navone has for the most part. This comes back to the above point regarding the forehand and also because his first serve is still big enough to generate plenty of free points. His second serve can hurt him, but Navone is also in big trouble when it comes to second serves, so for me, that weakness is a wash.

Read on for more expert insights.

Luciano Darderi Recent Form

The 22-year-old may be just 1-7 on hard courts this season, but several of those losses have come against players that are much stronger on the surface and were by just a one-break of serve margin (Tommy Paul and Alejandro Tabilo). He also had a loss via retirement against compatriot Flavio Cobolli, where he lost an opening set tiebreak before being broken and being forced to call it quits.

The first serve is enough to keep things close, even against hard-court players. His forehand was once far too topspin-heavy, but watching him this summer, he began to flatten that shot out a bit more when looking to finish points, which is a nice sign of improvement.

The second serve and backhand still need time that quicker courts don’t afford him, so there’s still plenty to work on, but Navone is the last guy who is going to enter an ATP 500 main draw and be able to exploit those deficiencies in his game.

Mariano Navone Recent Form

Navone has also struggled mightily on hard courts this season, going just 1-5 to this point. The lone win? The U.S. Open first round against Daniel Altmaier. Even in that one, he lost the opening frame 1-6 and required over 70 unforced errors from the German to advance.

He was then dispatched with ease by Dan Evans. The same Dan Evans that was coming off the longest match in U.S. Open history.

Unlike Darderi, his forehand isn’t an attacking weapon on the hard courts and his defensive ball retrieval skills aren’t as effective if his opponent can work him around the court, as the ball travels through the court quicker and even the fastest players will eventually watch the ball sail past them.

The first serve has started out decently in some matches, but opponents do tend to be able to time it up as the match progresses. Finally, the second serve is far too attackable.

With no weapons, a style that doesn’t suit hard courts, and very few signs of getting used to the surface and adjusting his game, I have to continue opposing him in these kinds of tournaments.

Luciano Darderi vs Mariano Navone H2H – Stat of the Match

Since the start of last season, these two have squared off six times. In what should come as a surprise to absolutely nobody, all six encounters have taken place on the red dirt.

The two have each won three matches, which means this has been a competitive match in the past. As I outlined above, however, the shift to a hard court should favor Darderi far more than it does Navone.

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