Luciano Darderi vs Jaime Faria Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 2/25/25

Tuesday’s second preview comes from the Movistar Chile Open on the ATP Tour as we look at Luciano Darderi vs Jaime Faria in first round action.

Faria’s win probability is only about 40%, while the out-of-form Darderi is favoured to win at 1.60 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

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Jon Reid’s Darderi vs Faria prediction is for Faria to win.

Luciano Darderi vs Jaime Faria Prediction: Surging Faria Value as Clear Underdog in Chilean Capital

• Prediction: Faria to win
• Best Odds: 2.50
• Bookmaker: William Hill
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 2:30 am UK Time on February 25th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Form alone is hardly ever a reason to make a bet, and though that is true in this case as well, it does play a big part in why I’m backing the Portuguese. The key is that the players Faria has beaten have been strong and his game is a repeatable one that has improved vastly in the last year or so.

Relatively unknown a year ago, Faria has now shot up the rankings and is part of the top-100 players in the world by ranking. It’s no surprise as to why, either. The stronger serve and forehand are noticeable. He’s added plenty of pace to both, but hasn’t sacrificed the weight of shot that works so well on clay.

That has added more hard court prowess to his game and the combination of decent pace and spin should prove to be especially effective in a bit of altitude in Santiago.

With his current level and Darderi continuing to struggle, I can’t have him approaching 2.50 odds in the betting markets.

Luciano Darderi Recent Form

The Italian’s form can be summed up quite simply by saying he’s won just one match in 2025 and just two of his last 17 contests. What’s more, one of those was last week via retirement (in a match we opposed him in and he trailed 0-4) and the other was against Dominic Thiem in a match that wound up being the last one of the Austrian’s career.

With his level not looking the same since a retirement last summer, and another retirement in Melbourne back in January, I’m still on the bandwagon that he’s not close to playing at 100% right now. Even in his loss last week where he looked okay for one set, he fell apart as the match progressed.

Not being able to last in physical encounters isn’t exactly the best trait for a clay court player, where matches are more physical than any other surface.

Faria can stick with him from an aggression standpoint, is fairly consistent from the baseline himself and the physicality also favours him in my books. I’m not sure how, with all that taken into account, Darderi can be any kind of clear favourite.

Jaime Faria Recent Form

It’s been a pretty strong start to 2025 for the 21-year-old. His record may stand at just 7-7, but he’s already qualified for a major, won his first best-of-five match, took a set off the greatest player of all time and made a quarterfinal at an ATP 500 event.

Not too shabby for a guy who this time last season was barely ranked inside the top-400.

I went over the progression in his game above, and a few underdog wins have showcased the fact that the market may not yet have caught on to his abilities.

He does have three losses now this clay season, but all of them (two against Juan Manuel Cerundolo and one against Camilo Ugo Carabelli) have come against very physical, consistent, grinding baseliners. Darderi isn’t exactly that at the best of times and certainly hasn’t been executing that type of style at the moment.

Luciano Darderi vs Jaime Faria H2H – Stat of the Match

Darderi won the only match contested these two back in 2022 at a Portuguese Challenger. Faria actually only managed to win a game in that tilt, but seeing as that was about three years ago, it’s one of the main reasons that the head-to-head records between players require so much context.

Needless to say, that’s not just an outlier type result, but that Faria is a much different player from this time last year, let alone this time in 2022.

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