Luciano Darderi vs Hugo Dellien Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 2/18/25

Our third preview for Tuesday also comes from the ATP 500 Rio Open with Luciano Darderi vs Hugo Dellien taking centre stage.

Dellien’s win probability is just under 50%, with Darderi the slight favourite to win at 1.82 odds. The handicap is 0.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Jon Reid’s Darderi vs Dellien prediction is for Dellien to win.

Luciano Darderi vs Hugo Dellien Prediction: Dellien in Favourable Conditions Against Questionable Darderi

• Prediction: Dellien to win
• Best Odds: 2.06
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 2:00 am UK Time on February 18th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

A lot of this handicap relies on the belief that Darderi isn’t playing at his best physically at the moment, so I’m not going to go above a standard staking size for this wager. I’m not a fan of letting assumptions be a big part of one’s handicap, but in this case, I’ve seen Darderi struggle too much in recent months to make him a favourite against a strong clay courter with plenty of consistency, weight of shot from the baseline and the physicality to last in a longer match.

Since retiring in the second set against fellow Italian youngster Flavio Cobolli in Cincinnati last summer, Darderi has won just a single match (he beat a now-retired Dominic Thiem). He hasn’t looked right and it’s shown in his results.

Usually, I’d believe that players wouldn’t play if they weren’t at least close to fit. Considering the fact that Darderi is a young player who just reached the main tour last year, I wouldn’t be surprised if he sees playing in as many big tournaments for the prize money as possible while his ranking is higher was his mindset.

Sure, he could take time off and come back with a protected ranking, but that wouldn’t afford him as many tournaments at his higher ranking.

With Dellien a capable player on the surface, playing well in qualifying and also able to play a physical match which could be problematic if Darderi isn’t at his best as I suspect, this is a solid option to back an outsider.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Luciano Darderi Recent Form

Not going to go too far in depth with his form, seeing as it was a big part of the handicap outlined above.

Since that retirement against Cobolli, Darderi is just 1-13. In those 13 losses, he’s won just three sets and dropped just as many by a score of 6-2 or worse and he’s retired once (just last month at the Australian Open).

There’s not much to like in that record and when we understand why and it still looks back when put in context, it becomes easier to oppose the 23-year-old.

Hugo Dellien Recent Form

Dellien, on the other hand, has been in decent form of late. Now, I want to be intellectually consistent here, so I have to admit that that form has been built up playing South American clay Challengers, which are normally weaker fields.

Still, in the last few weeks, he’s reached the semifinals in Piracicaba, Brazil, the final of a 125-point Challenger in Rosario, Argentina (where he was a set from the title) and now he’s qualified into this 500 level ATP tournament in Rio de Janeiro, dropping just one set and needing under four hours to reach the main draw.

Even his opposition hasn’t been as weak as I’d normally expect it to have been. He beat Sebastian Baez and Francisco Comesana – both players that are solid on the surface – and handled a solid grinder with aplomb, recovering from a poor second set in the final round of qualifying on Sunday.

Throw in a day off to ensure he is recharged and I’m loving this spot for the underdog.

Luciano Darderi vs Hugo Dellien H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first time these two will contest a match, despite being Challenger players at the same time and preferring to play on the red dirt courts.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.