Daniil Medvedev vs Nicolas Jarry Prediction, Picks, Odds, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/27/24

Well, a day after a pair of big wins in Miami (for us as well from a betting perspective), let’s look at Medvedev vs Jarry for our final Wednesday preview, as the two square off in ATP quarterfinal action from the Miami Open.

Jarry’s win probability comes in at only  19.1% while Medvedev is favored to win at 1.19 odds. The handicap is four games and the total games line is 22.

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Medvedev vs Jarry Prediction: Big Serving Tilt Price a Game Too Low

• Prediction: Over 22 Games
• Best Odds: 1.98
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 2:30 am UK Time on March 27th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I’m as impressed by Medvedev’s dominance this week as anyone. Though he did play Dominik Koepfer really close on Tuesday, he did put him away swiftly when the German’s level dropped.

Enter Jarry, who brings a different game style than Medvedev has seen this week. He’s a much stronger server with more power from the baseline than the other guys Medvedev has come up against so far in Miami.

I’m not going to go for the win in this position, but I will say that I don’t think we should see the total move from 22.5 or even 23 games down to 22 in this spot.

Long sets are more likely between these two than many, and I’m happy to back a cheaper number than we’re used to seeing in these types of matchups. Our Medvedev vs Jarry prediction is for the match to go over 22 games.

Daniil Medvedev Recent Form

As a top-5 player, Medvedev is in that tier where his form can’t really be judged on his win-loss record, but rather the quality of opponents and the dominance in victory.

Either way, he’s playing well. Not only is he now 17-3 on the season with two of the three losses coming to players ranked ahead of him (he’s the No. 4 in the world), but he’s looked sensational this week in Miami.

There is a caveat though, since he’s yet to play someone that has a booming serve or punishing groundstrokes. Marton Fucsovics, Cameron Norrie, and Dominik Koepfer are all talented players, but none of them can outlast him, they certainly don’t have the weapons to hit through him and their serves don’t generate nearly as many breakpoints.

Jarry should certainly bring a fresh look in the final eight for Medvedev and though he should get through, I don’t think it’ll be as simple as his last three matches.

Jarry’s first serve should pick up quite a few free points, which is key, considering Medvedev is so strong on return at eliciting errors.

He has the pedigree to make this another quick one, but I do think that against a strong serve like Jarry, with good plus-one power, we should see the total games number be at a more standard 22.5 or 23 as we typically see between strong servers on hard courts at this level.

Nicolas Jarry Recent Form

Having backed Jarry successfully personally twice now in Miami (including one of Tuesday’s previews when he took on Casper Ruud), I’m as familiar as anyone with how well he’s playing – especially relative to the market’s expectations.

The serve is playing so well in these relatively quick Miami conditions, his power speaks for itself and the raucous Chilean crowds certainly haven’t hurt him either.

He didn’t start the year the way I’m sure he wanted to down under or even in South America during the Golden Swing, but a run to the final in Buenos Aires and now a fairly deep run in Miami are sure to ease his nerves at least a bit.

Though his power can sometimes lead to mistakes and go a little off script, it’s still one of the better serves among guys ranked 15-50, and he’s really developed on quicker surfaces the last few seasons.

I don’t expect many breaks of serve for him against another big server like Medvedev, but I do think it’s reasonable to expect him to rack up service holds more often than not.

Daniil Medvedev vs Nicolas Jarry H2H – Stat of the Match

The only match between these two came almost five years ago now on the clay courts in Barcelona. Obviously not one that means much in the grand scheme of things.

I think the stat to look at in this one is the Medvedev first-serve return win percentage. Though his overall number is pretty impressive, as we isolate his matches against strong servers, we can see his percentage does dip.

That, to me, is the key to the match. Can Jarry find the same number of cheap points other big servers have been able to this year? If not, he’s in big big trouble, considering the edge Medvedev has in rally tolerance and movement.

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