Daniil Medvedev vs Alex de Minaur Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, June 3rd

The second week is upon us as the fourth round of the French Open concludes on Monday. Let’s look at the Daniil Medvedev vs Alex de Minaur match for our first tennis preview of the day from the men’s draw. Jon Reid’s Daniil Medvedev vs Alex de Minaur prediction is featured below!

De Minaur’s win probability checks in around 40%, while Medvedev is favored to win at 1.59 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 37.

Daniil Medvedev vs Alex de Minaur Prediction: Back the Favourite in Monday’s First Men’s Match

• Prediction: Medvedev -3 Games
• Best Odds: 1.87
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 12:45 am UK Time on June 3rd, 2024. Odds may now differ.

For a match between two guys that prefer quicker surfaces, I have to side with the better player, with the better serve who can match all of de Minaur’s biggest strengths on a tennis court.

From rally tolerance and defending to court coverage, Medvedev is more than capable of hanging right in the longer rallies with his Australian counterpart.

The benefit of a few more cheap points behind his first serve should also prove important and even though he’s not a fan of slow clay courts, his results on the surface since last clay season look much more impressive than de Minaur’s. His elo ratings – whether raw clay, blended clay, or overall – are well ahead of de Minaur’s. My Daniil Medvedev vs Alex de Minaur prediction is for Medvedev to cover the handicap.

Check out our preview for Alexander Zverev vs Holger Rune on our expert insights page.

Daniil Medvedev Recent Form

Despite his clear disdain for slower courts where he finds it hard to produce winners and actually win points of his own volition, the world No. 5 has been pretty strong on clay courts in recent years.

He was the surprising victor in Rome in 2023, and this year made the quarters at the Madrid Masters and has now made the second week at Roland Garros.

With a decent matchup advantage and somehow even more clay court pedigree than his opponent in this one, Medvedev may not love how long some of the rallies take to compete, but he is in a fairly decent position to win this contest.

He let things get a bit too close against the likes of Dominik Koepfer and Tomas Machac, but he did have a two-set and a break lead in both of those matches. He’s been playing some strong tennis and this matchup should be a little less frustrating for him than the match against Machac, who was able to redline and hit some incredible winners through both his defenses and the courts. De Minaur’s game doesn’t set up nearly as well for that.

Alex de Minaur Recent Form

This year has been much better for de Minaur on the dirt than his 2023 season was. He’s already overdoubled his win total from last year and beaten the guys you’d expect him to beat.

We haven’t seen any wins against players of Medvedev’s quality, however, with his best wins coming against Felix Auger Aliassime from a set down and Jan Lennard Struff from a set down and in a match where he was very fortunate with his break point conversion rate.

 He’s still a bit too underpowered for slow clay courts for my liking, as much as his speed and defensive abilities play very well.

He’s put in work on moving and playing on clay in the last few years and it has paid dividends this season, but we haven’t seen the breakthrough against the best players in the game yet and I don’t know if this matchup is the best one for him to finally find that marquee victory.

Daniil Medvedev vs Alex de Minaur H2H – Stat of the Match

Medvedev also has the overall series lead in this one, leading 6-2. Now, those were all on hard courts, so it’s tough to read much into that, but it’s worth keeping in the back of one’s mind.

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