Daniel Evans vs Gabriel Diallo National Bank Open Preview and Expert Tip: Back Evans to Keep Hot Streak Going

Daniel Evans vs Gabriel Diallo (National Bank Open): Tuesday, August 8th

From being two points away from a straight sets win (and covering the handicap) to losing outright, Frances Tiafoe learned the hard way on Monday night how fine the margins are in tennis.

For Tuesday’s ATP tennis action from Toronto, let’s delve into Daniel Evans vs Gabriel Diallo from the National Bank Open!

Daniel Evans vs Gabriel Diallo Expert Tip

Typically off long weeks, I’m not the biggest fan of backing a title-winning player.

Here, however, we have Evans, who isn’t one to fatigue often, has had a day off to rest and travel and is only heading from Washington, D.C. to Toronto – not exactly a long-haul flight.

With Diallo’s relative inexperience and fairly one-dimensional game, I’m happy to back an in-form Evans to keep his winning streak alive.

Read on for more expert insights.

• Expert Tip: Evans to win at 1.61 with Unibet, using 4/10 stakes.

Daniel Evans Recent Form

Well, there was absolutely nothing to write home about where it pertains to Evans’ form this time last week. He turned his season around in a big way, however, by winning the ATP 500 event in Washington, D.C.

It was the biggest title of his career, and served the added purpose of helping him defend points from his deep run in Montreal last season – which he has to defend this week in Toronto.

He should have a good chance to win at least one match as well, as he takes on the big-serving Canadian, Diallo.

The Brit has the rally tolerance to outlast Diallo, a good enough serve to find consistent holds against a relatively poor returner and most importantly, he can work the outer third of the court well to exploit Diallo’s movement, while also keeping the ball low with an outstanding backhand slice – something else that should trouble the big Canadian.

Gabriel Diallo Recent Form

It feels as though it has been a tale of two seasons for the Canadian. Formerly a collegiate player in the NCAA, Diallo seems to be finding it tough to adjust to the more gruelling year-long schedule that professional tennis demands of its players.

After some positive results earlier in the year indoors (he won an ITF title and then made the quarterfinals at a Challenger event), the success has dissipated in the last few months. Since making back-to-back quarterfinals at lower-level grass events in Surbiton and Nottingham, Diallo has won just twice in five tournaments. Those wins came against a middling Challenger opponent (Cem Ilkel) and another who has barely played in recent years (Bradley Klahn).

His return game simply isn’t enough, and if the youngster is starting to wear a bit physically after a relatively long year on tour (college players aren’t used to playing this much across seven months), he becomes almost entirely reliant on his serve.

We’ve seen him lose to the likes of Gijs Brouwer, Jason Jung, Matteo Gigante and Kevin Anderson lately. Only Anderson is a player with tour-level pedigree, and he was coming out of a year-long “retirement” in that match. Not great.

Dan Evans vs Gabriel Diallo H2H – Stat of the Match

The only head-to-head contest between these two came back in the grass season of this year, when Diallo beat Evans in straight sets. That’s probably what is keeping this price from being a more lopsided one in Evans’ favour. With the difference in pedigree and where each player is at the moment, I’m happy to oppose that mentality and narrative.

Statistically, it’s the last month and a half I want to look at for Diallo. We can see not only a poor record, but a precipitous drop in both his hold and break percentages. His 2023 season numbers have him in the 105% range, while that number sits at just 95% since June 19th. Whether it’s a step up to playing at a higher level more often or simply the rigours of life on tour taking hold, Diallo has seen a serious decline in his form.

Odds as at 4:30 am UK Time on August 8th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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