Borna Coric vs Stanislas Wawrinka Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/27/25

Another day where we’ll look at the ATP’s Challenger Tour with the match selection dwindling deep into the second week of the Miami Open. The Borna Coric vs Stanislas Wawrinka match could be mistaken for a match taking place on the main tour though, and it’s there we’ll find our first bet from Thursday’s men’s action.

Wawrinka’s win probability is only 37%, while the scorching hot Coric is favoured to win at 1.47 odds. The handicap is three games and the total games line is 22.5.

Jon Reid’s Coric vs Wawrinka prediction is for Wawrinka to put an end to the Coric win streak.

Borna Coric vs Stanislas Wawrinka Prediction: Veteran Presents New Challenge for Surging Croatian

• Predictions: Wawrinka to win the 1st Set & Wawrinka to win
• Best Odds: 2.40 & 2.71
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10 & 2/10

Odds as at 1:00 am UK Time on March 27th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

I’m going to consider myself lucky the last few weeks as someone who typically likes to oppose Coric in the betting markets. Luckily for me, while a lot of the tennis world ranked ahead of him was playing in California earlier this month and Miami the last few weeks, he dropped down to play some lower level tournaments where 1) he was much better than most players and 2) was playing a good chunk of his matches in quicker conditions, where he can end points more efficiently and protect his shaky forehand.

Now, the last six of his 16 consecutive wins have come on the clay, but Zadar didn’t exactly bring out top level talent and his opening round match here came against someone very underpowered who had a physical knock in his last contested match.

In an environment where he’s stepping up to a Challenger that awards more points and is taking on a much tougher competitor in Wawrinka, I think we’re finally seeing the overvaluation that these runs of form tend to create.

Wawrinka looked pretty sharp in his first match in over a month last round, and most importantly, he has a lot of weight and power on his forehand, which should cause major problems for Coric.

Without the serve finding him a slew of cheap points, I think there’s a really good chance we see Coric show why he’d fallen so far and needed to come back to this circuit in the first place.

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Borna Coric Recent Form

As I’ve mentioned a few times, Coric is on fire. There’s no denying the form. We can parse through some of the wins, with matches indoors not really being comparable and his run on clay last week lacking high-end talent and culminating in a match that saw him lose the first set before a weather delay paused the proceedings against Valentin Royer (who had also won 14 matches in a row at the time the match took place).

Big step up here in quality of competition, even if Wawrinka has fallen outside the top-150 and is older now.

I’m not sold on Coric’s ability to stand firm on the forehand side in slower conditions and his serve looked pretty weak last round through most of the first set before Mayot faded away.

Wawrinka isn’t the most adept on return anymore, so giving him chances to pressure his serve could be problematic for Coric. The one thing the veteran from Geneva still does well is back up his own service games really well.

All in all, the market is a bit scared to step in front of Coric right now, and as a result, I think we’re seeing prices that tell us doing just that will be profitable in the long run.

Stanislas Wawrinka Recent Form

As has been the case for several months now, Wawrinka continues to play competitive matches, yet wins very few of them. He’s just 2-5 this season, with both wins coming in Challengers or main tour qualifying draws.

They’ve also come in his last three matches played though, as by default, he’s found his best form of 2025. Even prior to these wins though, Wawrinka had managed to play four close sets with Lorenzo Sonego (tour level regular) in Melbourne, took a set off of Daniil Medvedev (tour level stalwart) in Rotterdam and then lost in three sets against both Nuno Borges and Quentin Halys.

I think he’s shown himself to be more than capable on a consistent basis against players as good as, or better than, Coric.

Nice underdog odds like this are ones I’m happy to pounce on with higher stakes.

Borna Coric vs Stanislas Wawrinka H2H – Stat of the Match

Wawrinka leads the series between these two 3-1, but I cannot emphasise enough how little those prior meetings mean. None have taken place on clay and none of the four matches have occurred since 2018, with the first two coming a decade ago.

Some people may try to sell you on some mental advantage those wins give Wawrinka here. I am not one of them.

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