Borna Coric vs Joao Fonseca Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 11/5/24

Our second preview for Tuesday’s slate on the men’s side comes from the ATP Challenger Tour’s HPP Open in Helsinki, Finland.

This is expected to be a very close match, with some bookmakers coming in with Coric as the slight favorite and others making Fonseca slightly more likely to win. The total game line is 22.5.

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Jon Reid’s Coric vs Fonseca prediction is for Fonseca to win.

Borna Coric vs Joao Fonseca Prediction

• Prediction: Fonseca to win
• Best Odds: 1.91
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds updated at 3:30 am UK Time on November 5th, 2024.

He’s not just a diamond in the rough prospect that only the most diehard tennis fans and prognosticators know about. He’s represented by a big agency and is fairly well known even in more mainstream tennis circles.

Yet the betting markets are pricing him at 1.91 against a struggling veteran with a lot of holes in his game, the propensity to be rushed by strong forehands (spoiler: Fonseca has one of those), and who has struggled to find wins with any regularity.

I’m not saying Fonseca should be a 1.20-1.25 favorite here. He still has much to prove. To deny he should be the favorite though would be equally as absurd in my books. Go ahead and give me the Brazilian to once more prove he’s on his way to the top.

Borna Coric Recent Form

It’s almost become routine the way Coric struggles all season long and manages to maintain a top-100 to top-150 ranking by having a good tournament or two every season.

One year it was winning Cincinnati. Another, it was a deep run at another Masters event in Madrid. This season he managed to reach the final of a fairly big Challenger and then a 250 in back-to-back tournaments way back in January and February.

The fact is, his first serve is decent in quick conditions, but not strong enough to rack up the cheap points he needs in slower conditions. His backhand is still strong, but his forehand is incredibly poor. Then there’s the issue with unforced errors.

I understand the desire to afford him some respect as the more established player who has far more experience playing at this level and against the top players, but the fact is, as volatile as the young Fonseca can be, he’s already surpassed Coric in my power ratings. Thus, I make Coric the underdog here. If you’re going to offer me a near coin flip, I have to oppose him.

Joao Fonseca Recent Form

Fonseca just became one of the youngest players ever from South America to enter the world’s top 150 in the world rankings.

His play has been incredible for a teenager this season. He has a monster game with huge groundstrokes, aggressive play, and a strong serve. To think it’s only going to get stronger is scary. He’s legitimately being hyped to the point that some believe that he may be the next most likely player to challenge Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz at the very top of the game.

I’m not there yet, as I think there are plenty of players with talent and power who get complacent and never add the tennis IQ and point construction that are so critical to take that next step.

Either way, he’s been great this year. Errors have been an issue at times (see the final round of qualifying at the U.S. Open) and he’s had a tough time with some established professionals that have odd styles (Mikhail Kukushkin) or that are in form on the pro circuit (Benjamin Bonzi), but he’s also won a Challenger as a teenager without dropping a set in Lexington this summer and made a quarterfinal of an ATP 500 (on a different surface, I might add) back on home soil in February.

Borna Coric vs Joao Fonseca H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first meeting between Coric and the prodigy from Brazil.

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