Federico Coria vs Kimmer Coppejans Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 11/29/24

To wrap up the week, we’ll look again at a match over at the Maia Open on the ATP Challenger Tour. This time, it’s Federico Coria vs Kimmer Coppejans, as the Argentine looks to lock up his spot in the first major of 2025.

Coppejans’ win probability is just under 47%, while Coria is favoured to win at 1.74 odds. The handicap is 1.5 games and the total games line is 21.5.

Jon Reid’s Coria vs Coppejans prediction is for Coria to win.

Federico Coria vs Kimmer Coppejans Prediction: Still Tough to Trust Coppejans Against Legitimate Clay Court Grinder

• Prediction: Coria to win
• Best Odds: 1.74
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 5:00 pm UK Time on November 28th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

In previous years, I could understand why Coria would only be a slight favourite to win this matchup. Coppejans is comfortable on clay, does have a decent serve for the surface and Coria is underpowered. In 2024, however, I’m not quite there.

It’s been an abysmal season for the veteran from Belgium that saw him drop down to some of the lowest levels of the sport to pick up match and tournament wins to get back on track.

Coria, for as little he brings to the table in the way of attacking tennis, is still and excellent grinder, a proven Challenger Tour player on the dirt and can even be relevant in smaller main tour 250s with weaker fields.

He also still has a bit to play for this week in Portugal, with his live ranking sitting at No. 100 and this win likely locking up a main draw spot down under at the Australian Open in January. The fact that there are a few people alive in other Challenger tournaments that could pass him and others and knock him back one or two spots should also be driving him.

The motivation is not a foundational reason to bet him, it just alleviates any concerns that he may not give 100% in the match.

I simply think Coppejans has been too unreliable against someone who is incredible at prolonging rallies and asking questions of his opponent’s solidity from the baseline.

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Federico Coria Recent Form

After an early exit in mid-September from a Challenger in Austria at the hands of a young prospect, Coria had spent the last couple of months on his home continent, playing in Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, Peru and Uruguay trying to amass the requisite points to secure a main draw berth in the 2025 Australian Open.

He may well have done so, but with that still in limbo prior to this week, he’s made the trek back to Western Europe for the final week of the season looking to ensure he doesn’t have to rely on withdrawals for the year’s first major.

That tells me he means business, and with his live ranking still needing another win or two, I would expect the strong clay courter to come away with the win here.

He took care of business in the opening two rounds having spent a total of 56 minutes on court. His first opponent retired early in the second set and he received a walkover from the second round into the quarterfinals.

He’ll be fresh, he’s a borderline main tour player on this surface and there’s plenty of motivation. Normally, these are all things the market would price in, but I can’t see a world where Coria is only a slight favourite in this match given how this season has unfolded.

Kimmer Coppejans Recent Form

Coppejans has looked strong through two matches this week indoors in Maia. That, along with four consecutive titles at the lower ITF Tour, is all the positive that can be said about his season.

No, the latter is not as impressive as it sounds, especially with a few of those ITF tournaments being M15s (the lowest of professional tournaments on any circuit).

Perhaps this is the week he finally turns things around and returns to the form that made him a solid, clay court Challenger Tour journeyman. Even if that was the case, however, it wouldn’t do anything but make this price point reasonable. If this two match run is indicative of where he may be in 2025, I’d still make him a slight underdog against Coria.

That sample is far too small to take at face value though. Taking a more macro viewpoint, I don’t think we can have him cheaper than 2.30-2.35.

Federico Coria vs Kimmer Coppejans H2H – Stat of the Match

Coria has never lost to Coppejans, winning all three matches and all six sets the two have contested. Now, none of those matches have been played since 2022, so it’s hard to put too much stock into them, but I’d make the case that Coria has declined far less than his counterpart in this one.

In other words, though head-to-head records can be deceiving, it’s tough to see how Coppejans, who hasn’t been playing his best, closes the gap against someone who has beaten him routinely in the past.

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