Federico Coria vs Federico Arnaboldi Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 12/9/24

Our second ATP Challenger Tour preview comes from the Invest In Szczecin Open as well as we look at the battle between the Federicos in Federico Coria vs Federico Arnaboldi.

Arnaboldi’s win probability is about 43%, while Coria is favored to win at 1.63 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.

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Our Coria vs Arnaboldi prediction is for Coria to win.

Federico Coria vs Federico Arnaboldi Prediction: Coria Undervalued Off Poor Patch of Form

• Prediction: Coria to win & Coria -3 Games
• Best Odds: 1.63 & 2.06
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10 & 2/10

Odds updated at 2:30 am UK Time on September 12th, 2024. 

Much like I believe the market over-indexed the lack of play for Dennis Novak, the same goes for the recent poor form of the Argentine, who has stated that he’s struggled to adjust to new racquets.

That said, I think having someone like Arnaboldi go from an underdog in the 2.10 range against Javier Barranco Cosano to a 2.30 range underdog against Coria. That is a wild notion, seeing as one is a middling Challenger player and the other is a lower-end main tour opponent.

Arnaboldi has been in the midst of a career season, but I’m not sure I’d give him a 40-45% chance to come away with the win here.

Federico Coria Recent Form

It hasn’t been an easy few months for the 32-year-old who has had a wretched time adjusting to his new racquet. Since July he’s struggled to put opponents away when ahead. It probably didn’t help that he made the surface change from clay to hard courts for a few tournaments to accommodate the U.S. Open.

Since returning to the clay though, he has looked a touch better. A poor first set against Sebastian Fanselow was made up for by a dominant second and third set. After a second-round loss, he headed to Szczecin and cruised against another low-level opponent, winning 6-0, 6-3.

The rust may be starting to shake off, and the talent level warrants a much more expensive price tag. I think the market is focusing a bit too much on a singular issue that he may be showing signs of having worked through.

Federico Arnaboldi Recent Form

After having shown very few signs of becoming a Challenger Tour regular before April of this season (he was struggling on the ITF Tour and is 24 years old now), Arnaboldi burst onto the scene by qualifying at a series of Italian Challengers, before making the final in Modena and then winning one in Verona.

It hasn’t been smooth sailing of late, as he had been on a three-match losing streak before his opening-round win. That was somehow priced up as an upset, but I don’t think it was that big of a win, especially seeing as the margin of victory was one break of serve.

His game does seem to have what it takes to hack it at this level, but the issue for me is that Coria is a bit better than a typical Challenger Tour player – even if he is going through an adjustment period with new equipment.

Federico Coria vs Federico Arnaboldi H2H – Stat of the Match

These two played a close match in Sassuolo earlier this season. That tilt saw a tight first two sets before Coria wore the Italian down and ran away with the third set 6-0.

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