Federico Coria vs Andres Andrade Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 11/1/24

Our second preview of the day once again comes from the Challenger Tour as we look at Federico Coria vs Andres Andrade from the Challenger Ciudad de Guayaquil.

Andrade’s win probability is only 38%, while Coria is favored to win at 1.52 odds. The handicap is three games and the total games line is 21.

Jon Reid’s Coria vs Andrade prediction is for Coria to cover the handicaps.

Federico Coria vs Andres Andrade Prediction: Coria Too Strong for Home Favourite

• Prediction: Coria -3 Games & Coria -3.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.85 & 1.96
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10 & 2/10

Odds updated at 12:00 am UK Time on November 1st, 2024. 

I’m not the biggest fan of previewing as many bets on favorites as I have the last few days, but the value is found in poor handicap pricing on favorites as well as underdogs that are being undervalued

Coria to me represents one of the elite slow red clay-type players in these South American fields. He’s a pusher, there’s no doubt, but that gets the job done in these types of late-season Challengers with weak fields and the motivation is there.

The one reservation I would’ve had here against someone who has a potentially promising game but not nearly big enough to hit through the rigid solidity of Coria and who simply hasn’t yet proven himself against a player of his caliber, is that there was nothing to play for.

That isn’t the case though. Currently ranked No. 104 in the ATP rankings and No. 105 live, Coria could use a few more wins in Guayaquil to ensure himself direct entry into the Australian Open main draw. Sure, he may get in with withdrawals and the like with this ranking, but why leave it to chance? He has the goods to get to the final here and that would likely do the job. With his hard-court game being really poor, it’s not likely he’d make it through qualifying.

Give me the better player by a wide margin with something to play for, even in November.

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Federico Coria Recent Form

After a losing streak in the summer months that saw him drop some points, and thus ranking spots, Coria has looked a bit better of late and is once again using the friendly confines of his home continent to build his rank back toward the top 100.

This is his fourth quarterfinal appearance in his last six tournaments and all of the losses have come to players that probably have more quality than Andrade (the one exception may be Mika Brunold, who is a Swiss prospect that certainly has plenty of talent).

His opening sets this week have been a bit shaky, but his physicality has seen him improve in the second sets and win them a bit more decisively than the opener. That is something we’d love to see once more on Friday. If he can grind down Andrade, he should find his way into a third semifinal since September.

Andres Andrade Recent Form

The Ecuadorian is going for his third straight victory as the underdog in this one after upsetting both Marco Trungelliti and Juan Pablo Varillas in the first two rounds. The former is a guy who hadn’t done much in recent years but has had a great year, while the opposite is true of Varillas (a tour-level clay courter for most of the last few years before falling off in 2024).

The 25-year-old is a talent, but I don’t think there’s anything in particular he does all that well.

This is also his first tournament back on the dirt after a few weeks of playing hard-court tournaments around the United States.

Finally, the one thing worth noting heading into this match is the 5+ hours he’s spent on the court through two rounds. His opponent has also been on the court for 4+ hours, but Coria predicates his game on physicality and doesn’t mind playing the longer matches. We’ll see if Andrade has what it takes to pick up another win against Coria if the veteran can drag things out and make the contest physical.

Federico Coria vs Andres Andrade H2H – Stat of the Match

The primary reason this handicap seems mispriced is because of Andrade’s dominant win in Santo Domingo earlier this year. The green clay in the Dominican Republic tends to play quicker though, and Andrade does translate his game to faster conditions far more seamlessly than the veteran from Argentina.

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