Francisco Comesana vs Andrea Pellegrino Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 2/6/25

Our second preview for Thursday’s action comes down on the lower ATP Challenger Tour as well, as we look at Francisco Comesana vs Andrea Pellegrino from the YFP Rosario Challenger.

Pellegrino’s win probability is only 36%, while Comesana is favoured to win at 1.46 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 21.5.

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Jon Reid’s Comesana vs Pellegrino prediction is for Comesana to cover the handicap.

Francisco Comesana vs Andrea Pellegrino Prediction: More Reliable Comesana the One to Back in his Native Argentina

• Prediction: Comesana -3.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.93
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 8:00 am UK Time on February 6th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

In Thursday’s first article, I lamented about the dangers of small sample sizes and pointed out how important volume is if you have an edge in a certain sport to help offset patches of negative variance. The theme of this article? Price sensitivity.

I wasn’t initially looking at betting Comesana in this one, with the handicap opening around four games and the moneyline below 1.40. Some money has come in for his Italian counterpart though, and now I’m tempted to get off the sidelines.

See, Comesana is a legitimate tour level player in my books. These days, the surface doesn’t even matter – he’s proven often enough to be competitive even on hard courts and on the grass.

Pellegrino? He isn’t close. His best level can be unplayable, but it’s the lack of consistency producing that level that makes him a mediocre player down on the lower Challenger circuit.

Plenty of spin, plenty of comfort on the surface, higher calibre player and a nice forehand, along with the consistency edge is enough to bet Comesana for me. Remember though, if you’re staring down a -3.5 game handicap in the 1.75-1.80 region, it probably isn’t’ a good bet. The price is everything in this industry.

Francisco Comesana Recent Form

The 24-year-old world No. 87 had some trouble getting going in his first match back on the red dirt, but he overcame a 2-6 start to defeat Juan Bautista Torres in three.

Prior to that, he’d looked okay in Auckland qualifying, but was disappointing losing to fellow clay courter Daniel Altmaier in Melbourne.

This is a great week to build some form for him, back on his favourite surface and in his home country, with 125 ranking points up for grabs should he win the title. It’s a big event given to Argentina on the Challenger Tour after the ATP scrapped the 250 in Cordoba with the elevation of Dallas to the 500 level.

He has the game to get it done and with Pellegrino’s overly-volatile game, he should win this in straightforward fashion more often than not.

Andrea Pellegrino Recent Form

What a typical Pellegrino start to the season. Pretty poor for three weeks at the Challenger level on the clay and this week has turned up with three wins including the qualifying draw, with two coming as the underdog.

As a rhythm player, perhaps I should be scared (and would explain the market backing him a bit), but this is the best player he’s had to take on to date, so I won’t overreact to that and trust the process.

His weapons are unquestionable from the baseline, but they’re too untrustworthy to back here. Especially with the handicap now below four games.

Francisco Comesana vs Andrea Pellegrino H2H – Stat of the Match

Comesana has won both previous matchups against the Italian and he’s done so in short order both times. This is the rare spot where I actually think the head-to-head may be actionable, as both those matches were 1) on a clay court – so the surface is relevant and 2) both came in 2024, so are not outdated results.

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