Danielle Collins vs Caroline Garcia Prediction, Picks, Odds, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/27/24

We’re into the middle of the week and down to the final eight players left in the main draw, while only six women remain on the WTA side of things (the women have played two of their quarterfinals already). For our first article of the day, let’s look at our Collins vs Garcia prediction. Garcia’s win probability is only 34.7% while Collins comes in as the favourite to win at 1.47 odds. The handicap is three games and the total games line is 22.

More previews and tips for all the action on the court can be found on the Expert Insights page.

Collins vs Garcia Prediction: Match Should Be Much Closer Than Betting Markets Believe

• Prediction: Garcia to win
• Best Odds: 2.89
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as of 1:00 am UK Time on March 27th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

In what has been a rough patch for me betting-wise, these are two of the players that have been kind to me in recent times. I’ve had bets on Garcia personally in each of her last two rounds, while we had Collins written up here in her match with Anastasia Potapove earlier in the Miami Open.

In this one though, I have to side with the underdog in the Frenchwoman. I’m constantly surprised at how big of a favorite she can be priced up as, yet also how big of an underdog she is in other spots.

Her serve is too big on quicker courts to be counted out of any match, but her return isn’t strong enough to be a 3.5-to-4 game favorite either.

When we get her at these prices, it’s easy to back her. This is a match between two players that play hard-hitting brands of tennis and I’m going to side with the bigger server at sizable underdog odds in what should also be a close match. Our Collins vs Garcia prediction is for Garcia to win.

Danielle Collins Recent Form

The 30-year-old may have abruptly announced her retirement back in Australia after blowing a lead against Iga Swiatek, but Collins has found a decent patch of form since that disappointing defeat.

She made a run to the Doha quarterfinals from the qualifying draw, beating a slew of top-50 players along the way, went on to make the quarterfinals in Austin as well, and has now rolled to the same stage in Miami, having lost only her first set of the tournament – which she rebounded from by winning the next two sets 6-1, 6-1.

Collins hasn’t just won in straight sets in the last three rounds, she’s demolished her competition. She has elite power from the baseline and plays an incredibly aggressive game.

Now, along with the head-to-head (more on that in a minute), Collins’ form is surely the reason she’s such a strong favorite against Garcia who has been equally as impressive to this point.

Here’s the catch, she hasn’t played a strong server yet in Miami. Elina Avanesyan has little to no power and certainly no serve to protect her from the aggressive, powerful returns of Collins, Potapova struggles mightily from the service line relative to her baseline power as well, and Sorana Cirstea has a decent first serve, but it’s certainly not one that can create cheap points with ease.

Let’s see how that aggressive mentality works when she has far less time against the booming first serves of Garcia.

Caroline Garcia Recent Form

Garcia has looked pretty impressive in her own right so far in sunny Florida.

After beating Viktoriya Tomova pretty badly (although via retirement), she’s taken out Naomi Osaka and world No. 3 Coco Gauff.

The lone set she’s dropped was against Gauff, and it’s hard to fault a player for losing a set to one of the world’s tougher players.

As for her game, while she’s struggled with Collins in the past, she too plays an aggressive style and has no shortage of power at her disposal. Her net game is more refined and I’d make the case that her serve is much stronger and creates more free points than the American’s.

There are reasons Collins is favored, but I am in vehement disagreement to the extent that that’s the case.

Danielle Collins vs Caroline Garcia H2H – Stat of the Match

The reason for the pricing here has to come down to the head-to-head record between these two. Collins leads 3-0 and they’ve all been fairly one-sided matches. I think with all three contests coming on hard courts (though a match five years ago means very little), there is something to that.

I’m still of the mindset that this is a big price based solely on the previous results between the two.

Elo-wise, these two are both strong hard courters, with Collins about 100 points clear in both blended elo and raw hard court elo.

Safer Gambling

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