Flavio Cobolli vs Filip Misolic Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 4/4/25

First of our two previews from ATP action to wrap up the week comes in the Flavio Cobolli vs Filip Misolic match from the Tiriac Open in Bucharest.

Misolic’s win probability is just under 50%, while Cobolli is ever-so-slightly favoured to win at 1.83 odds. The handicap is 0.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Jon Reid’s Cobolli vs Misolic prediction is for Cobolli to win.

Flavio Cobolli vs Filip Misolic Prediction: Proven Player at ATP Tour level a Must Bet on Friday

• Prediction: Cobolli to win
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 12:00 am UK Time on April 4th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

I’ve been pretty high on Misolic as a player. In fact, I’m pretty sure I wrote a preview tipping him within the last week and a half. That said, I can’t have him on nearly even footing with Cobolli. I’m well aware of the Italian’s struggles of late, but that form alone isn’t enough to close the gap between these two.

Cobolli is still the better player by a substantial margin and has proven himself at the top level of the sport. He has comfort on the surface and he has firepower and topspin on his shots to succeed on clay. Other than poor form in recent months, I don’t know what else there is that has the market believing so heavily in Misolic against him.

Thought I’d have to give up a 1.5-2 game head start. I’ll gladly just play the better player to win at this kind of price.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Flavio Cobolli Recent Form

I alluded to the only valid reason to oppose Cobolli at these types of odds would be his form. Coming into this week in Romania’s capital city, the world No. 45 had won just a single match (a 7-5 third set against Eliot Spizzirri) since the the United Cup prior to the Australian Open.

His confidence was visibly low, as he sulked on court, often just going through the motions once he had blown leads (see his match against the upstart Colton Smith in California last months).

That’s why it was nice to see him pick up a win in the opening round, even if it was against an older Richard Gasquet. He looked almost revitalised in that deciding set as he pulled away.

The talent isn’t in question. Though he can be error prone, he moves well, can defend, has the tools necessary to play on the red clay and certainly has enough firepower to be a mainstay on the professional game’s top tour.

Perhaps this is the week he’s able to turn things around. He has another match where he should consider himself a favourite here to get through to the semifinals.

Filip Misolic Recent Form

It’s nice to see Misolic back in the top-200, which he should become a part of Monday thanks to his run through qualifying and now two main draw matches in Bucharest. Once a top-130 player, Misolic had a pretty poor 2024 campaign.

With that behind him, he’s trying to showcase that he can be a threat on the red dirt in the coming months.

Though he struggled in the altitude and windy conditions of Kigali in his first match of the year on clay and was handed a tough draw in Zadar, he’s now won seven of his last eight matches. The caveat? Four have been in qualifying draws – including a pair in Challenger qualifying in Girona – and the loss was a lopsided one and a dominant victory for Jesper de Jong.

Despite his opponent’s struggles, this is still a big step up in quality for him and I think he still needs some time to pull off an upset like this.

Flavio Cobolli vs Filip Misolic H2H – Stat of the Match

Misolic does have an emphatic clay court win against the 22-year-old. The only problem is that it came five years ago when Cobolli was a teenager. Once again, context makes it tough to take it all that seriously.

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