Alina Charaeva vs Viktoria Hruncakova Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 12/2/24

For our first preview of the new month, it’s over to the women’s side of things as the men’s Challenger Tour is off along with the main circuit until the new season starting later this month. 

Let’s look at Alina Charaeva vs Viktoria Hruncakova from the annual W100 ITF tournament in Dubai.

Hruncakova’s win probability is just under 45%, while Charaeva enters the match as the clear favourite at 1.57 odds.

Jon Reid’s Charaeva vs Hruncakova prediction is for Hruncakova to win.

Alina Charaeva vs Viktoria Hruncakova Prediction

• Prediction: Hruncakova to win
• Best Odds: 2.25
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 1/10

Odds as at 10:30 pm UK Time on December 1st, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Before I lay out why I like Hruncakova at this number, I first want to preface things by saying that with the ITF Tour, we have to be cognisant of the fact that liquidity isn’t as great in these markets and that oftentimes we see higher margins from the bookmakers. Even still, for our first previews of December, I think we’d be foolish not to attack a few prices before shifting back to the 125k events in France and Brazil.

I’m not going to make a case that the big-hitting Slovakian should be the favourite, but having Hruncakova as a clear underdog on courts that aren’t particularly slow is a bit of a stretch.

She has the weapons and firepower to control points and with the courts at least being a neutral speed, she shouldn’t be too frustrated and overhit all that much.

That last point is the concern though. Along with her movement, her consistency is her big weakness. It’s why I do believe Charaeva has a clear path to victory. Her ability to prolong points and utilise the slice to move her opponent around are going to be very useful.

In other words, this is a battle between two contrasting styles, with one player more likely to dictate play and look to hit winners and the other looking to frustrate the other into committing errors and 

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Alina Charaeva Recent Form

Now 29-13 at all levels on hard courts this year, Charaeva is an interesting player. When one does some tape study, there is nothing in particular that stands out as all that impressive.

She’s simply very consistent and willing to use spins that can induce mistakes from opponents and uses the dimensions of the court to a decent extent.

It’s led her to some success in 2024, but it also means there’s a kind of cap on the success she’s going to have. The players that have managed to beat her on hard courts are not exactly the creme de la creme and she is going to be overly reliant on her opponent to make mistakes a bit too often for my taste.

It may work this round considering what we know about Hruncakova, but I wouldn’t bank on her coming through enough to justify a 1.57 price tag.

Viktoria Hruncakova Recent Form

It was a respectable fall indoor hard court season for Hruncakova, who managed to reach back-to-back-to-back semifinals in the last three tournaments she played.

She had a bit of a tougher time at the Billie Jean King Cup representing Slovakia, but with her losses to main tour calibre opponents in Emma Raducanu and Lucia Bronzetti, I’m not going to read too much into that or hold either loss against her.

The key to this match is to play solid, yet aggressive tennis, trying to end points quickly without getting frustrated and hitting with too little margin. That’s the trap that Charaeva is sure to set.

Alina Charaeva vs Viktoria Hruncakova H2H – Stat of the Match

Much like the fact that Hruncakova hasn’t been on a poor run of form, there isn’t a reason found in the head-to-head to make her a big favourite. In fact, these two have yet to meet on the professional circuit.

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