Francisco Cerundolo vs Facundo Diaz Acosta Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 1/15/25

We wrap up the second round of action from the Australian Open on Day 5 of the main draw. Let’s delve into the Francisco Cerundolo vs Facundo Diaz Acosta match as we hunt for value at the year’s first major.

Diaz Acosta’s win probability is only 33%, while Cerundolo is favoured to win at 1.43 odds. The handicap is 4.5 games and the total games line is 37.5.

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Jon Reid’s Cerundolo vs Diaz Acosta prediction is for Cerundolo to cover the games handicap.

Francisco Cerundolo vs Facundo Diaz Acosta Prediction: Cerundolo to Send Compatriot Packing in Second Round

• Prediction: Cerundolo -4.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.97
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 12:00 am UK Time on January 15th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

I’m not done opposing Diaz Acosta, as I still rate him as one of the lesser players on hard courts and quicker surfaces in the men’s game. We knew last round that Zizou Bergs was likely to fold as the match was prolonged, and that’s why we looked to shorten the finish line by playing a first set market at lovely odds. Sadly, Bergs choked away his break of serve lead and won it 7-6.

I’m right back at it, as I’ll back Cerundolo, who is more physically fit and has proven more at the top end of the game than Bergs, and yet, isn’t that much larger of a favourite.

Keep in mind, Bergs did lead two sets to one, and if not for a long week and questionable credentials in terms of endurance in best of five matches, he probably would’ve eliminated the 24-year-old last time out.

Francisco Cerundolo Recent Form

It was a really poor start to the year for the world No. 31. Losing by six games on a quick court to Roberto Carballes Baena was certainly something I didn’t have on my bingo card.

Perhaps there’s an argument to be made that Diaz Acosta can extend rallies in a similar way, but to me, Carballes Baena has shown in recent times that he’s much more competitive on hard courts than he once was, while Diaz Acosta has been more fortunate in certain situations and matchups.

Cerundolo has the requisite weapons to find success on quicker courts and is certainly more experienced and comfortable on them than his countryman.

His win against Alexander Bublik might’ve come down to the mercurial and often-unmotivated Kazakh playing poorly, but it’s still a win against a hard courter with a big serve. With Diaz Acosta’s only strength on hard courts being a decent lefty first serve, that preparation should serve Cerundolo well.

Facundo Diaz Acosta Recent Form

With his wins against Bergs and Cam Norrie, the market appears to believe in Diaz Acosta far more than I do. Having watched him play against Luca Nardi, Norrie and Bergs, I can comfortably say that he’s still got a fairly long way to go before I consider him competitive against better opposition.

He kept things close against Nardi, but the Italian played a really poor tactical match on return. Norrie played so poorly he threw his racquet and almost saw himself defaulted and Bergs had started to take over the first round match before losing a lot of pop in his game and fading.

Then there’s the losses. To a Challenger Tour player who prefers clay (Duje Ajdukovic), the aforementioned match against Nardi – also more of a Challenger level guy – and Gael Monfils, who did go on to win the event, but who beat Diaz Acosta comprehensively. There’s nothing in his form that really convinces me he should be an underdog of fewer than 5.5-6 games.

Francisco Cerundolo vs Facundo Diaz Acosta H2H – Stat of the Match

This has been a historically close matchup (two wins apiece), but it’s worth noting that all prior matches have been played on clay courts, where Diaz Acosta closes the gap considerably as a clay courter by trade.

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