Francisco Cerundolo vs Federico Coria Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, April 17th

The final preview of the day on Wednesday comes from the other ATP 250 tournament in Romania, the Tiriac Open. Let’s look at the all-Argentine Cerundolo vs Coria prediction.

Coria’s win probability is only % while Cerundolo is favored to win at 1.28 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Cerundolo vs Coria Prediction: Cerundolo Too Strong for Countryman

• Prediction: Cerundolo to win & Cerundolo -3 Games
• Best Odds: 1.62 & 2.05
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10 & 2/10

Odds as at 2:00 am UK Time on April 17th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

It hasn’t been a great few weeks for Cerundolo, but if we look at his last four losses, he’s fallen three times in a deciding set tiebreak and all four losses have come in a third set. Three of the defeats have come at the hands of top-20 players as well.

Now, he has fumbled some great chances, but the fact remains that he’s still played very competitive tennis against some very strong players and a few points in a few tiebreaks could completely change the way we look at his recent play.

He has the stronger game, still prefers clay courts, and is likely motivated to find some wins given how his recent tournaments have ended up. This is a manageable draw and his countryman doesn’t have all that much in his game to threaten Cerundolo. My Cerundolo vs Coria prediction is for Cerundolo to win and cover the games handicap.

Read more tennis previews over on our expert insights page.

Francisco Cerundolo Recent Form

As I mentioned above, Cerundolo’s win-loss record may not be that impressive of late, but when we look at who he’s played and how the matches have ended up, I think we can walk away knowing that his play hasn’t been that poor once context has been applied.

Far too many people are content saying he’s 3-4 in his last four events, therefore he’s playing poorly and struggling. I’m not at that point.

His game is made for clay, it’s his favorite surface and his forehand is going to be the biggest shot on the court in this matchup. That means at the very least, the player we’re backing is likely going to decide his own fate.

With how often Coria leaves balls in the forecourt, I’m happy to wager that Cerundolo is going to be able to put away his fair share of winners on the day.

Federico Coria Recent Form

Coria has one of those vintage clay court styles that makes him a true clay court specialist.

With almost no offense to speak of, he’s another guy who is going to make things physical, try to play long rallies, rely on spot serving, and hope to coax a slew of unforced errors from his opponent’s racquet.

The problem is, unlike guys like Jaume Munar or Sebastian Baez, depth of shot can be an issue for the 32-year-old and he doesn’t really have a balanced game in the sense that he can defend and prolong rallies, but also ramp up the aggression when the occasion calls for it.

The lack of dimension and overvalued results from the early-season Golden Swing in South America have me hesitant to back his pricing as a relatively slight underdog.

Francisco Cerundolo vs Federico Coria H2H – Stat of the Match

A lot of the Coria backers are going to point to his 6-3 lead in this head-to-head. Worth noting though that since the start of 2022 as the younger Cerundolo has emerged as a strong tour-level player, it’s 1-1 with the loss for Cerundolo coming via retirement.

Statistically, Coria is one point ahead in the hold plus break percentage in the last year at tour-level on clay, but when it comes to the raw clay elo rating? Cerundolo is about 90 points ahead. That is a strong indicator that despite being just about as good statistically, that Cerundolo has done it against much better competition.

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