Arthur Cazaux vs Stanislas Wawrinka Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 1/27/25

The second preview from Monday’s action also comes from the ATP 250 Open Occitanie in Montpellier, France. Let’s look at Arthur Cazaux vs Stanislas Wawrinka.

Wawrinka’s win probability is only 36%, while Cazaux is favoured to win at 1.49 odds. The handicap is three games and the total games line is 23.

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Jon Reid’s Cazaux vs Wawrinka prediction is for Wawrinka to win.

Arthur Cazaux vs Stanislas Wawrinka Prediction: Conditions Slower Than Cazaux Typically Enjoys

• Prediction: Wawrinka to win
• Best Odds: 2.76
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 11:30 pm UK Time on January 26th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Going to have a small play on the veteran from Switzerland here for a few reasons. The first is that he’s far more versatile with regards to surfaces and court speeds than the young Frenchman, who still has a very raw, explosive game. Cazaux’s success has come almost entirely in quicker conditions, and Montpellier doesn’t exactly play fast – especially for an indoor hard court tournament.

The other is the fact that Wawrinka can stick with the 22-year-old from the baseline in terms of firepower, while remaining a bit more steady.

I understand if the market wants to make the up-and-comer the favourite considering how much Wawrinka has struggled for several months, but given the conditions, Cazaux’s lack of dominant play and the fact that even when struggling Wawrinka has played his opponents tight most of the time, I can’t make the Frenchman such a large favourite.

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Arthur Cazaux Recent Form

After a terrible stretch from Dubai through the U.S. Open last season, Cazaux returned to the Challenger Tour in China and did a decent job to find some match wins. He was 6-2 between tournaments in Hangzhou and Shenzhen on the lower circuit and while I’m sure his team sold that as a positive, considering how weak fields are on the lower circuit and the fact he didn’t really have a single standout victory, I’m not sold on those being that successful.

Not to mention, those were in conditions that favour his game.

Fast forward to 2025 and we’re looking at a 2-3 record with a win against a Challenger Tour hard courter and one of the worst hard court players in the top-100. Now, his losses are almost as impressive as the wins, seeing as he had Felix Auger Aliassime on the ropes and did take the first set against Jacob Fearnley – an ascendant Scottish player who has surged since turning pro out of college.

The problem? Auger Aliassime hasn’t been a consistent top player in over a year and Fearnley is still a prospect of sorts himself.

We know the potential is there, but the results haven’t been. For 11 months. Perhaps he wins, but with the information we have available to us, how do we justify a 1.49 price in the markets?

Stanislas Wawrinka Recent Form

Other than reaching the semifinals in Stockholm in the fall, Wawrinka has found himself on the losing end of a lot of 7-5 sets, tiebreak sets and three set matches.

At this point, there’s a chance his age is catching up with him, but seeing as he’s so competitive for the majority of the match so often, it feels like he’s just coming out on the wrong end of a nasty run of variance to some degree.

The explosive groundstrokes are still there, and he’s been able to stick with guys like Ben Shelton, Gael Monfils, Flavio Cobolli and even recent Australian Open quarterfinalist Lorenzo Sonego (had a few 5-5 sets gone differently, he may have eliminated the Italian in the opening round). Clearly the talent is still there, and even the legs to play the best of five set format.

It’s odd that a former grand slam champion and veteran would struggle mentally late in sets, seeing as he’s been in those spots as much as almost anyone playing on the men’s tour today. Perhaps it is a tough stretch for him mentally – only he can possibly know – but these valuations that have him as a clear underdog are a bit much, especially against still relatively unproven players.

Arthur Cazaux vs Stanislas Wawrinka H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first time the two players from different generations have met.

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