Pablo Carreno Busta vs Alexander Shevchenko Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 12/26/24

Our first preview of the 2025 season comes in….2024? That’s right. With the way the United Cup is formatted, it has to begin a tad early. Let’s look at one match from the ATP side of things with a preview for Pablo Carreno Busta vs Alexander Shevchenko.

Shevchenko’s win probability is a respectable 45%, while Carreno Busta is favoured to win at 1.73 odds. The handicap is 1.5 games and the total games line is 22.

Jon Reid’s Carreno Busta vs Shevchenko prediction is for Carreno Busta to come out on top.

Pablo Carreno Busta vs Alexander Shevchenko Prediction: Side With Clear Matchup Edge to Open 2025

• Prediction: Carreno Busta -2 Games
• Best Odds: 2.04
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 1:00 am UK Time on December 26th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I hope everyone enjoyed that “offseason” because we are right back at it with the 2025 season just before we turn the calendar to 2025.

Let’s get it going by backing a wily veteran, with an underrated first serve that plays incredibly smart, solid tennis from the baseline.

Carreno Busta takes on the fiery and mercurial Shevchenko, who can smack the ball around a decent amount, but has very little ability to sustain his top level, gets frustrated on court (and it bleeds into his play) and if he can’t find a winner or two, he struggles to work out how to win points.

Though these courts are quick and may help him keep things slower, playing someone like the Spaniard is a huge matchup disadvantage for him. Carreno Busta is far too solid and with a prolonged period of rest after coming back from injury and looking physically exhausted down the stretch, he should be much more refreshed as we enter 2025.

I have him as at least a three game favourite. He could’ve been had at market open just to win in the 1.91 range, but after a market-making book shifted the prices, I’ll happily still back the -2 games.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Pablo Carreno Busta Recent Form

The season was a four-part story for the 33-year-old. The first was the injury. The second was the rusty play upon his return. Then he finally found his footing and was able to look good at the Cincinnati Masters and then again at the 250 in Winston-Salem.

The final stanza to his season though looked as though he was once again back to being away from his physical best.

As I mentioned above, I do think having been off for five weeks should do him some good. He’s perfectly suited to exploit the lack of tennis IQ of Shevchenko and he’s also got the perfect game style to frustrate the Kazakh and elicit the errors that he’s so prone to hit.

If he’s ever going to make a charge back up the rankings, a strong win against Shevchenko would be a great place to start for the former world No. 10.

Alexander Shevchenko Recent Form

I’m not big on simply looking at one’s record and deducing whether they had a good or bad season without looking at the context surrounding that record, but it would take an incredible number of bad draws to make a season that saw Shevchenko go 22-39 anything but a serious disappointment.

He doesn’t have the composure or tactical proficiency for this level yet and the errors are far too commonplace in his game at the moment.

Though a lot of his losses late in the season came against decent opposition, the fact is he still struggled mightily. Perhaps he’s been working on some of the deficiencies in his game, but I’m not convinced and think the handicap should at least reflect the uphill battle he’s likely to face in this one more often than not.

Pablo Carreno Busta vs Alexander Shevchenko H2H – Stat of the Match

The only time these two played was back in August prior to the U.S. Open in Winston-Salem. Always worth taking matches the week before majors with a grain of salt, but Carreno Busta did win that one 6-2, 6-2.

That was when the Spaniard actually looked fit and playing some of his better tennis and with a few weeks off, let’s hope he replicates that kind of form here!

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