Pablo Carreno Busta vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 1/27/25

As we turn the page on the Australian Open, we get back to the ATP Tour and this week’s Open Occitanie in Montpellier, France. We’ll start with a match from the final round of qualifying. It’s Pablo Carreno Busta vs Aleksandar Kovacevic for a spot in the main draw.

Kovacevic’s win probability is at 50%, while Carreno Busta is favoured to win at 1.83 odds. The handicap is 0.5 games and the total games line is 23.

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Jon Reid’s Carreno Busta vs Kovacevic prediction is for Carreno Busta to win.

Pablo Carreno Busta vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Prediction: Tough to Trust American on Just One Tournament of Form

• Prediction: Carreno Busta to win
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 10:45 pm UK Time on January 26th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

It was nice to see Kovacevic finally snap out of his slump a few weeks back in Oeiras, Portugal at a Challenger Tour tournament, winning it and dropping only a single set along the way. It doesn’t yet make me believe he’s at the level where he should be given what amounts to a coin flip’s chance to beat Carreno Busta though.

The Spaniard has enough on serve to exploit the weaker one-handed backhand and return game of the 26-year-old, is the best player he’s played in a while and though he’s lost more than he’s won this year, Carreno Busta has put up a fight against legitimate main tour opposition with regularity so far in 2025.

Finally, the baseline advantage Carreno Busta possesses is rather large in my books, whether it be in terms of the backhand wing, his solidity or even his movement along the baseline. With Montpellier having been one of the slower indoor hard courts on tour in the last few years, I think that could come into play and reduce a bit of the service advantage that Kovacevic has.

I have him the clear favourite and can’t quite get to the point where he loses this particular matchup half the time.

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Pablo Carreno Busta Recent Form

I alluded to the 3-4 record on the season for the veteran above, but with losses coming to Stefanos Tsitsipas (in three sets), Ben Shelton (in four sets), the big-hitting youngster Jakub Mensik (5-7 in a third set) and another promising player in Zizou Bergs (again, in a third set, after having served for the match in the second), I’m actually not that concerned.

He’s yet to lose in straight sets, despite playing some tough opposition. I think this could be a big week for the former top-10 if he can qualify and snag one of the two qualifier spots not in that opening quarter.

In terms of comparable players level-wise that he’s played, not only has Carreno Busta won each of his three matches, but he’s done so in straight sets against Alexander Shevchenko, Kamil Majchrzak and Dalibor Svrcina.

I’ll happily back him to come through this one and reach the main draw.

Aleksandar Kovacevic Recent Form

Entering the season, Kovacevic desperately needed something to go his way, and after bowing out of the qualifying draw in Melbourne from a set up and being a few points from victory in the second set against a guy known more for his clay court game, he found the form he needed.

Not only was the title in Oeiras his first in quite some time, but it also represented the first tournament in 14 in which he won two or more matches at the same tournament.

Since then? A win against Alibek Kachmazov (middling Challenger player) and another against Robin Bertrand (a low end Challenger player) – the second of which saw him fail to cover the handicap – with a loss to Matteo Martineau as a favourite mixed in.

It’s clear to me that the market has started valuing Kovacevic far more on one good run than on the larger sample which still shows he’s struggling to find a sustainable way to win matches.

The serve is great and the forehand plays really well. There’s no taking that from him. The backhand, movement and consistency are still lacking though and because of his obvious weaknesses, it’s hard for him to really develop his point construction skills (he’s usually either winning points quickly or on the back foot).

There’s a lot left to develop in his game, despite being in his mid-20s and that means I just can’t trust him with a valuation like this in a match against an established professional at the main tour level.

Pablo Carreno Busta vs Aleksandar Kovacevic H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first time these two have taken on one another. So far in 2025, Kovacevic sports an impressive 112 hold-plus-break percentage, with the obvious caveat that he’s amassed those impressive numbers against primarily Challenger level opposition.

Carreno Busta’s small six-match sample has resulted in a 102.5 hold-plus-break percentage, but with opponents that include some big-hitting youngsters and established top-20 players, I actually think that number is pretty impressive for someone still building his ranking back up.

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