Carlos Alcaraz vs Tomas Machac Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 10/10/24

Our first preview for Thursday comes from the ATP Rolex Shanghai Masters. The top players in the world just keep on rolling after Beijing. Let’s look at one of their matches. It’s Carlos Alcaraz vs Tomas Machac!

Machac’s win probability is only 11%, while Alacraz is a massive favorite to win at 1.09 odds. The handicap is 5.5 games and the total games line is 19.5.

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Our Alcaraz vs Machac prediction is for Machac to be competitive.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Tomas Machac Prediction: Machac Has Enough to Cover Massive Handicap

• Prediction: Machac +5.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.85
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds updated at 12:00 am UK Time on October 10th, 2024. 

Carlos Alcaraz Recent Form

Sublime. That’s the only way to describe Alcaraz’s form since his stunning loss at the U.S. Open to Botic van de Zandschulp, who was over 30/1 at one point in the betting markets!

Two wins in the Davis Cup for Spain, another two in the Laver Cup for Europe (that’s an exhibition with a different format and should be disregarded, but he still looked good), the title in Beijing and now six sets from six in Shanghai.

So why on earth would I oppose him?! Well, it’s not so much about thinking he’ll lose, so much as the difficulty of covering a handicap this high.

Though he managed to do it in the second round against Juncheng Shang, Alcaraz won by fewer than five games in each of his last two matches. I would have Machac above each of his last two opponents in my quick hard-court ratings.

He’s also playing someone that doesn’t just have a decent serve, but the athleticism to at least play the longer rallies with him. I’m in no way suggesting Machac is the better baseliner, simply that he can stick around in enough rallies to perhaps find a break or two and to back up his serve well enough as well.

Finally, the courts have been playing pretty quickly in Shanghai, and with a higher hold rate than we typically see on tour, it becomes much tougher to cover these kinds of handicaps. Perhaps the prodigy does run away with this match. It’s not likely though and that’s what we deal with in this industry.

Tomas Machac Recent Form

Though his path to this point hasn’t been as clean as the world No. 2’s, he’s still been pretty solid this week. He was pretty poor in the early stages of his first match and his last one, but he’s still beaten Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Aleksandar Vukic, and Tommy Paul in succession.

Two of those guys are very talented and one is a quick court specialist.

None are obviously near the level of Alcaraz, but Machac has the weapons and ability to hang with the big guns as well. Giving him a 5.5-game advantage from the outset seems too much.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Tomas Machac H2H – Stat of the Match

The lone match these two played came at the Davis Cup on the international scene a few weeks back. Machac won the opening set in a tiebreak before struggling physically and retiring after being beaten soundly in the second set.

He has the shotmaking and ball-striking ability to compete with even the best of the best. It doesn’t mean he’ll win this match, but I think a 5.5-game head start is a big one and one I want to back.

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