Carlos Alcaraz vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, June 4th

The other men’s quarterfinal at the French Open is the marquee match of the day and it’s no surprise that Carlos Alcaraz vs Stefanos Tsitsipas has been given the night slot on Chatrier. Our Alcaraz vs Tsitsipas prediction at 1.88 odds is featured below!

Tsitsipas’ win probability is just 22.2%, while Alcaraz is favored to win at 1.25 odds. The handicap is six games and the total games line is 35.5.

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Prediction: Tsitsipas More Than Capable of Pushing Spanish Phenom

• Prediction: Over 35.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.88
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 2:30 am UK Time on June 4th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Though Alcaraz has looked more like himself in the last few matches and certainly feels like his arm issues are behind him, making Tsitsipas such a large underdog on a surface he’s so strong on in a season that he’s played so well seems off to me.

This isn’t about disrespecting the Spaniard or his level. It’s about Tsitsipas not being below 25% to beat anyone at the moment on a slow, high-bouncing clay court.

I’m not backing Tsitsipas to win per se, but his moneyline number also leads to his handicap and the total being off as well. Tsitsipas has struggled to get past Alcaraz in the past, but he’s in much better form entering this match than he was last season and there have been some close matches between these two in the past.

As for why I chose the over, I don’t think this match goes four sets without getting over 36 games, so I’m happy to take the 1.88 rather than the 1.75 and when it comes to the six games, I’m a little more hesitant, simply because my handicap has more lopsided sets going the way of Alcaraz than Tsitsipas. That means that if one cashes the other is more likely to as well, but in the instances where one cashes and the other doesn’t, the over is the more likely to be that wager. Our Alcaraz vs Tsitsipas prediction is for the match to go over the total games.

Carlos Alcaraz Recent Form

Though he had his issues in the second round with Jesper de Jong, Alcaraz has been much more convincing in his last two matches. Sebastian Korda gave him issues, but he eviscerated the error-prone Felix Auger Aliassime, who showed us again that his success this clay season may have been more about his draws than his game improving in a significant way.

That form is also likely a reason why we’re seeing the odd favor him to this extent.

The most important thing about this rebound is his forehand. He’s even admitted that the forearm issues haven’t just impacted his ability to hit the forehand, but as it has gotten better, swinging through at full power has been mental as well, with him worried about re-aggravating that injury.

With him trusting that groundstroke more and more, he certainly could roll through this one. I simply have Tsitsipas slightly north of 25% given his abilities, so can’t back Alcaraz at these prices from a betting standpoint. I do believe he will win this match though.

Stefanos Tsitsipas Recent Form

Five clay court tournaments were played this year. All at the ATP 500 level or above. Four quarterfinals, one final (at least), and one title (at least). After a poor hard court season relative to expectations, Tsitsipas has silenced the doubts that his struggles would carry over to his preferred clay.

He hasn’t been perfect, but he’s been incredibly impressive, has served well, has been more competitive on his backhand wing, and has shown that his serve and forehand combination on clay with the power and spin they possess is still elite.

I can’t imagine a scenario where he is rolled as easily in this match as he was last season and with his ability to rack up service holds and his ability more likely than not to snag him a set, I trust him enough to get this match over the total.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Stefanos Tsitsipas H2H – Stat of the Match

5-0 Carlitos. That’s the elephant in the room. That includes the meeting last year that saw Alcaraz steamroll through the first two sets before Tsitsipas finally woke up.

We have seen Tsitsipas be competitive in this matchup before and when his serve and forehand are working, he’s shown that even the elite returning and athleticism of Alcaraz can have trouble breaking him.

He’s been far closer to that player of late.

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