Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, May 1st

The marquee match from the men’s quarterfinal slate at the Mutua Madrid Open on Wednesday features Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev as the Spaniard continues his quest for a third consecutive title in his native country’s capital city.

Rublev’s win probability comes in at 21.3% while Alcaraz is favoured to win at 1.23 odds. The handicap is four games and the total games line is 22.

Our Alcaraz vs Rublev prediction is to pass, but the games handicap with Rublev seems enticing.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev (Mutua Madrid Open) Prediction: Rublev With a Chance to Keep Things Close

Tough to make a bet on this match, though I do think that if I had to pick a side, the +4 games handicap seems tempting for Rublev. He has the big serve and aggressive first ball after his serve to pick up routine holds – even against Alcaraz’s return game.

He doesn’t have that raw power and ultra aggressive game of Struff, but he’s more well rounded and athletic to make up for it.

Alcaraz is still one of the most dangerous players on the ATP Tour and starting with even a four game head start can always be nerve racking with the way he can throw up four or five games on the trot.

We also have a Aryna Sabalenko vs Mirra Andreeva prediction this Wednesday.

Carlos Alcaraz Recent Form

We talked about the turn in form since an injury-affected Golden Swing a bit in our preview of his match with Struff, but he’s added yet another win to that list, making it 12-1 in his last 13 matches.

It wasn’t an inspiring win against Jan Lennard Struff, but he’s yet to beat the big German in straight sets, indicating the kind of matchup discrepancy between the two and telling me that it may not be something to overweigh in one’s handicap of this match.

His elite return game will be tested in this matchup, with Rublev holding serve at a 90% rate this year, about 87% on clay overall in the last 52 weeks at the main tour level and the altitude potentially helping him out in that regard.

Now, Alcaraz is one of the very best at it on tour, so he’s certainly more likely to generate pressure than most, but we know that Rublev has the power to potentially take time away from him as well.

He went to the dropshot a lot against Struff on Tuesday and with Rublev being more athletic, one would hope to see him cut down on that tactic in a big way come Wednesday.

Andrey Rublev Recent Form

This has been an important week for Rublev. Not only has he finally notched a few wins on the dirt in 2024 (he was 0-2 prior to this tournament), but he’s looked fairly convincing in doing so.

He took care of Facundo Bagnis and Tallon Griekspoor with relative ease, as one would hope if they were cheering him on, and he got past Alejandro Davidovich Fokin in two tight sets – and we know the Spaniard is incredibly talented, but also incredibly volatile, both mentally and in his game style.

Most importantly, he’s only been broken twice in six sets of play. That’s the most important number for me, since the returner on the other side of the net is a new kind of test.

He’ll need to be at his absolute best, landing first serves and playing aggressive, though not sloppy
tennis
with his first forehands.

Taking time away from Alcaraz has proven to be a strong tactic in the past, and often elicits errors from the star’s racquet. If he can approach the match with that simple gameplan, he can certainly keep things relatively close.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev H2H – Stat of the Match

Alcaraz has won the only match these two have played at the professional level. Rublev has a win against him at an exhibition, but I’d put that to the side completely when evaluating a matchup from a betting perspective.

This will be the first meeting between the two on the clay.

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